Measuring and anticipating the vulnerability of territories to the risks of relocation.

Summary While economic studies generally conclude that offshoring has little impact at the macroeconomic level, it does generate significant asymmetric shocks for territories that must be anticipated. This is the challenge of this study, which constructs an original indicator of the vulnerability of territories to the risks of relocation in manufacturing activities. First of all, the vulnerability factors are identified at a fine level of activities. A principal component analysis at this sectoral level makes it possible to identify four types of manufacturing industry sectors according to their potential for relocation, depending on the characteristics of their jobs and their content in routine tasks and product characteristics. Then, following the approach of Aubert and Sillard (2005) implemented on establishment data, an index of effective offshoring at the sectoral level is estimated. It allows us to characterize the risk of offshoring in the four main types of sectors and to measure the economic vulnerability of employment areas.