Measuring the shutdown: Generating economic information about containment.

Authors Publication date
2020
Publication type
Other
Summary The economic crisis triggered by the decision to confine the population living in France is unprecedented in many respects. First of all, its scope, which led the French Treasury to estimate in mid-April that French GDP would be down by 8% by the end of 2020 - the largest decline since the end of the Second World War. Secondly, by its nature, since this crisis concerns both supply and demand, production and consumption: it is "the crisis of an economy at a standstill". Finally, it has one of its implications, since this crisis prevents us from projecting into the future, even a few months into the future: while the French government, with the agreement of the European Commission, limits the outlook of its stability program to the year 2020, INSEE has temporarily given up issuing quarterly or annual forecasts. Similarly, the "emergency plans" put forward by the Minister of the Economy and Finance and the Minister of Action and Public Accounts are intended to mitigate the immediate effects of the crisis, without constituting "recovery" or "revival" plans. [First paragraph].
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