Foresight of energy transitions. Between economic modeling and strategic scenario analysis.

Summary At a time when many countries are considering the responses to the economic crisis resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic and the question of how to link them with strategies to combat climate change, what contribution can foresight make to energy transitions? Continuing the "Energy-Climate" series that began in our columns last March, Patrick Criqui and Henri Waisman offer an analysis of the various foresight tools that have been developed over the past fifty years to inform decisions on energy transition. After a historical review of the evolution of integrated energy-economy-environment modeling, whose golden age is the period 1992-2014, they highlight the limits encountered by this type of foresight, at the international level, starting with the Paris agreements, which encourage the reintroduction of the "political economy" dimension in the transition scenarios.