Risking the Future? Measuring Risk Attitudes towards Delayed Consequences.

Summary This paper presents an experiment that investigates differences of risk attitudes in decisions with immediate versus delayed consequences. Our experimental design allows to control for the effects of discounting and timing of risk resolution. We show that individuals are more risk tolerant in situations involving delayed consequences. Investigations based on rank-dependent utility show that this finding is mainly driven by probability weighting. More precisely, probability weighting is more elevated for delayed consequences, suggesting an overall increase in decision maker's optimism regarding the chances of success associated to risks for which consequences materialize in the future.