Allocation of savings and long-term investment.

Summary Today's savers are sailing on stormy seas: the financial and economic crisis is making the environment more uncertain, there is a macroeconomic risk linked to the future of the social protection system, tax reforms, and "individual activation" policies that seek to make individuals more responsible for their own future... As a result, French savers are today, even more than in the past, favoring safe, short-term assets (increased deposits in passbook accounts, lower net life insurance inflows, etc.) and real estate over risky, long-term financial investments.) and real estate to the detriment of risky, long-term financial investments. This state of affairs worries some actors who are looking for ways to encourage households to take more risk and to favor productive savings1. Before entering into this debate, we will conduct a statistical "audit" of the asset situation of French and European savers. To do so, we will use the full range of available data: both those of the National Accounts and those of the household surveys conducted by INSEE (wealth surveys) and the European Central Bank (HFCS). These data will allow us to see that this "risk premium enigma" on risky financial assets is not a purely French phenomenon but is generalized to the euro zone. We will then review the explanations for this empirical "puzzle" by putting on the glasses of the economist, whether he or she is a follower of orthodox theories or those of behaviorists: the lack of appetite for stock market investments is due to both the supply side - transaction costs in the broad sense, relatively unattractive taxation that reduces the expected return - and the demand side - lack of financial education among savers, risk aversion deemed too high, exposure to other risks (income, unemployment, family, health, housing, human capital). From the demand side, individuals' portfolio choices depend on three main components: their preferences (risk aversion, time preference, etc.), their resources that are more or less available or risky, and their expectations regarding returns and risk vis-à-vis the stock market and labor income. The "natural" experiment that is the current financial and economic crisis provides an ideal observatory for judging the importance of each of these factors. The unique longitudinal data from the PATER surveys allow us to study the reactions of savers during the "great recession", to see "what has changed" to explain the increased risk aversion of investors: increased risk aversion, reduced resources, pessimistic expectations? We will thus be in a better position to judge the relevance of certain proposals aimed at redirecting savings towards riskier products.