Demo-economic applications of the microsimulation method.

Summary This work proposes several demo-economic applications of micro-simulation methods, methods developed in the late 1950s in the United States. The first chapter first defines the general principles of micro-simulation, presents the different types of models based on this method and outlines the main advantages of this method. Then, a more detailed presentation of some existing models will allow a better understanding of the logic behind their design. Three applications will be the subject of the following chapters. The first is strictly demographic. It is concerned with the evolution of four-generation families. By taking a longitudinal perspective, which the use of microsimulation allows, it aims to measure the influence of recent and future changes in fertility and mortality, both in terms of intensity and timing, on the evolution of the probability of belonging to this type of family. The second application takes up this longitudinal perspective to describe a double biography of women during their retirement, their family life (presence or not of a spouse, children) and the evolution of their income during this period. The first biography provides a measure of the phenomenon of isolation as one advances in age, an isolation linked mainly to mortality. The second biography, which only microsimulation allows us to understand, gives the financial situation of individuals at the time of their retirement. The last application is professional demography. It shows how a microsimulation model can be applied to different modes of personnel management and looks at the implications of these different modes of management on the situation of a company.