Housing, demographic cycles and life cycle.

Summary This thesis includes three approaches to the housing market that aim to capture the interactions between demographics and housing. 1. Analysis of the influence of demographic cycles on aggregate housing demand: a review of macroeconomic models of the housing market including a demographic determinant is presented, followed by a modeling of the housing market based on French economic data. The major assumption of this model is the idea of a systematic surplus of housing supply over demand, the magnitude of which determines the price. Finally, this model is simulated according to different demographic and economic scenarios. 2. Analysis of the demographic determinants of individual housing choices: the aim is to detect a possible life cycle logic in the residential behavior of households with acquisition of housing during the working period and de-accumulation during retirement. These behaviors are tested on the 92 housing survey: housing consumption, occupation status and mobility are analyzed. 3. Microsimulation of the housing market that allows to study the interactions between the aging of the population, the housing market and the intergenerational transfers (inheritance and pension system): the model considers a heterogeneous population where individuals are born, have children, grow old and die, receive salaries or pensions and sometimes benefit from an inheritance Each agent lives through one or two periods during which he optimizes his consumption according to the principles of the generalized life cycle theory. While we find ourselves in each period with a population of individuals with different characteristics, the macroeconomic closure of the model sets up a price system that ensures the accounting consistency of behaviors. Finally, this model is simulated in order to analyze the effects of different demographic shocks and economic developments.