Labor demand rigidities and uncertainty: an econometric analysis on panel data.

Summary In France, the unemployment rate is now more than 12% of the active population. This high rate is characterized by strong persistence. It is also accompanied by an increased precariousness of employment. The objective of this research is to explain these phenomena by examining the labor demand behavior of firms. The work presented here is situated at the microeconomic level of the firm: the aim is to evaluate the sources of labor demand rigidities. This thesis articulates theory and empirical applications: numerous estimates are made using the techniques of applied econometrics on firm data. In addition to wage costs, two factors of labor demand rigidities are examined: labor adjustment costs and uncertainty. We show that the existence of uncertainty about the firm's income, associated with adjustment costs, leads to labor demand rigidities and encourages the firm to use a flexible workforce to better adjust to cyclical shocks. 3 results are obtained: an increase in uncertainty reinforces the expectation behaviors regarding hiring on a permanent basis and firing. The inertia observed on cdi jobs is compensated by an <> on cdd jobs. Finally, an increase in the share of fixed-term contracts in the firm improves overall employment flexibility, while protecting fixed-term workers from layoffs. Finally, we are interested in the impact of resignation flows. In France, these flows are important (more important than layoffs) and procyclical. We show that the demand for fixed-term contracts is more sensitive to its exogenous determinants when the resignation rate increases.