Population, Economic Growth and Climate Change: The Role of Foresight in Greenhouse Decision Making

Summary In this thesis, we aim to answer the following question: how to represent and integrate the population in the decision making process regarding the fight against the greenhouse effect? Given the uncertain and controversial nature of the problem, we propose to use foresight to answer this question. To do so, we construct a set of scenarios, based on a coherent set of assumptions, that incorporate elements of the main de��mo-economic theses at hand. We show that the way in which the population is represented plays an important role in the debates that are at the heart of greenhouse negotiations: (a) the trajectories of CO emissions diverge in a significant way according to the different competing visions of the relationship between population and the global environment, (b) the calculation of the relative contributions of population and GDP to CO emissions confirms that the choice of an emission rights allocation rule (based on population or GDP) will not have the same impact in all regions, as they go through different phases of demo-economic transition. A choice of allocation of emission rights based on population favors developing regions, while an allocation of rights based on GDP favors developed regions. (c) Population growth imposes an additional constraint on the wait-and-see approach to emission reduction. Population dynamics, both globally and particularly at the regional level, suggest, in the name of the precautionary principle, that emissions should be reduced significantly in the short term.