Fluctuations in a small open economy: applications to the French economy.

Summary The purpose of this thesis is to deepen the understanding of the fluctuations of the French economy over the period 1970-1998. In particular, it aims to take into account its openness to the outside world. Chapter 1 analyzes the dynamic properties of a small open economy model. The modeling of a small open economy implies the presence of a unitary eigenvalue. The aim is therefore to highlight, from a methodological point of view, the origin and the implications of this unit root. In the following four chapters, intertemporal general equilibrium models in a stochastic universe in a small open economy are developed. Each time, the model is calibrated on the French economy. We perform stochastic simulations as well as historical simulations in order to evaluate the ability of the proposed models to reproduce the stylized facts of the French economy. Chapter 2 of the thesis is devoted to the analysis of the impact of fiscal shocks on the fluctuations of a small open economy. We develop a model of perpetual youth, such an assumption allows us to eliminate the unit root inherent to this type of modeling of small open economy. Moreover, the Ricardian equivalence is no longer verified, as households have a shorter horizon, in expectation, than the state. Chapter 3 of the thesis explores the role played by external shocks in the fluctuations of the French economy. In chapter 4, I propose a model that reproduces the countercyclical character of the trade balance when it is subject to external and technological impulses, thanks to the consideration of a utility function that cannot be separated between consumption and leisure. The last chapter of the thesis proposes a monetary model of limited participation in a small open economy. We consider a model where shocks are transmitted through the credit channel.