Modeling the modal choice of travelers on long-distance trips: the value of time.

Summary In the context of the evaluation of major transport infrastructure projects, the problems related to the choice of transport means by the user are of particular strategic importance. To date, in France, decision-makers have often used so-called tutelary values (values of time fixed a priori) when estimating the socioeconomic profitability of interurban projects. Nevertheless, in recent years, major efforts have been made to collect information on long-distance travel (structural household surveys, panels, etc.). These efforts are a necessary but not sufficient prerequisite for better project evaluation. The main objective of this thesis is to measure the influence of economic factors such as monetary costs, travel time, and accessibility on the choice of a long-distance transport mode, by implementing multinomial discrete choice models on individual data. For a given user, in a given context, the probability of choosing a particular mode of transport is equal to the probability that this mode of transport provides a higher level of utility than the alternative modes of transport. The specification of the econometric models to be tested therefore depends on the form chosen for the deterministic part of the utility function and on the random part. On the basis of the results of these individual estimates, it is then up to the designer to consider the problems of aggregating these microeconomic decisions in order to implement robust passenger flow forecasts on specific geographical axes. It is therefore clear that public decision-makers are interested in having rigorous and quantifiable estimates of these values, which should enable better evaluation of infrastructure projects.