Regionalism versus multilateralism: the case of the Maghreb.

Summary "This thesis compares the effects of regional and multilateral openness in the case of Morocco and Tunisia, examples of "small" developing countries facing these options. The first chapter measures the protection of Tunisian and Moroccan markets, the second chapter situates the protection of the European Union (EU) vis-à-vis Morocco and Tunisia in the context of the common trade policy. The third chapter is devoted to an estimate of the impact of the dismantling of the MFA (Multi-Fiber Agreement) and the accession of the CEECs (Central and Eastern European Countries) on European imports of clothing, a key sector for Mediterranean countries. A gravity equation taking into account tariff and non-tariff barriers is constructed. The negative impact of tariffs on imports is immediately apparent, while the negative impact of quotas is significant after controlling for endogeneity bias using instrumental variables. The estimates show that the end of the MFA will have a substantial impact (more than the accession of the CEEC). The fourth chapter is a synthesis of the theoretical arguments made about the impact of regionalism and multilateralism on global welfare or for a participating country. The non-reciprocity of an agreement is likely to limit the gains from regional openness. The Vinerian analysis suggests that unilateral liberalization would avoid the costs of trade detour, but liberalization among "natural" partners is likely to limit these costs. The fifth chapter is devoted to the construction of a computable general equilibrium model (a static model with perfect competition) which tends to show that the medium-term effects of these two trade strategies on these two countries are, on the one hand, weak or negative, and, on the other hand, not very different. Alternatives concerning taxation, exchange rate policies or access to the EU are considered. ".