Financial factors in the business cycle: the importance of wealth effects for households and firms.

Summary The purpose of this thesis is to deepen our understanding of the role of financial factors in the French business cycle. In particular, it aims to study the importance of wealth effects for households and to test the existence of a credit channel for inventory investment. Chapter 1 begins with a review of the literature on inventories. It presents the main findings from theory and empirical studies on the determinants of macroeconomic fluctuations in inventories. Chapter 2 of the thesis is devoted to the estimation of an inventory equation on French aggregate data, with the objective of analyzing the role played by financing constraints in inventory investment decisions. In the next two chapters, stochastic intertemporal general equilibrium models incorporating inventories with a financial dimension are developed. In each case, the model is calibrated to the French economy. Chapter 3 of the thesis explores the role played by monetary shocks in the fluctuations of the French economy. In particular, the ability of the model to reproduce the inventory cycle is analyzed. Chapter 4 proposes a model incorporating a financial gas pedal mechanism on inventory investment. This model is able to reproduce a number of stylized facts when subjected to both technological and monetary impulses, and to evaluate the amplifying effect of financial factors on inventory behavior and on the product. The last chapter of the thesis is devoted to the analysis of the role of households' wealth in their consumption behavior.