Information manipulation and scientific uncertainty: three essays.

Summary In many economic contexts where the information available to decision-makers is incomplete, the use of expertise can be an effective tool for decision support. However, the informational advantage held by the expert can lead him to manipulate his information in order to satisfy his private interests. The first part of this thesis addresses this problem by considering a bilateral relationship between an expert and a decision maker. We analyze the strategic disclosure of the expert's information through various communication mechanisms. In particular, we consider an incentive mechanism through which the expert is paid for his recommendations, a Cheap-Talk mechanism and a Persuasion mechanism. Moreover, in a problem where scientific uncertainty is more radical, we compare the decisions resulting from two decision criteria that attempt to account for two different logics of interpretation of the precautionary principle, the Maxmin EU criterion and the criterion of minimizing the maximum of the regret expectation.