What is the cost to the electricity sector of a policy to restrict carbon emissions in France?

Summary This thesis aims at highlighting the cost of carbon constraints for the power sector. First, the theoretical principles of carbon regulation are presented, as well as their application in Europe. The analysis of existing models and empirical studies highlight the preponderant role of the electricity sector in the carbon market. An original approach testing the influence of the emissions of the electricity sector on carbon prices confirms the importance of the way in which electricity producers charge for the cost of their emissions for the formation of prices. In the second part, the formation of prices specific to the electricity sector is analyzed, and in particular the principles of peak pricing. A model of resource allocation within the electricity sector is developed by integrating a constraint on emissions. This model allows for the analytical determination of the value of carbon and the parameters that determine the allocation of costs. This is followed by a discussion of the model's domain of validity, and of the central assumptions for comparison with market prices. In the third part, the model is calibrated with French and German data and the results of the model are compared with market data. The model allows the revelation of the implicit cost assumptions within the forward prices and the influence of carbon prices. The analysis of the carbon values from the simulations then allows us to understand the conditions for achieving a partial equilibrium on the two markets and to answer the question of whether it is appropriate for France to include the electricity sector in the carbon tax system.