Europe facing global imbalances: a historical, theoretical and empirical analysis.

Summary During the 2000s, the United States benefited from a historically unprecedented transfer of savings. This thesis proposes to study the consequences of this phenomenon of "global imbalances" for Europe. First, we highlight a British cycle of global imbalances (1815-1944) during which Europeans largely benefited from savings transfers and an American cycle (since 1944) during which they only marginally participated. Using a theoretical model, we show that the British cycle is marked by a "current account - foreign investment - investment income" loop that allowed European countries to consume more than their income while continuing to increase their holdings of foreign assets and thus their rents. During the American cycle, the model indicates that the accumulation of global imbalances is the result of the growth strategies of the United States, Asia and OPEC, and implies for Europe: (I) a slowdown in growth. (II) an appreciation of the euro . (III) a small impact on the current account. Using a structural VAR model, we empirically confirm these three theoretical results for the euro area. Finally, we show from the theoretical model that by adopting a growth strategy driven by domestic demand, Europe could have countered these adverse effects. A panel study of the cointegration relationship between the balance and the budget balance indicates that fiscal policy could have been an effective lever, especially in the euro area countries.