Carbon trajectories in Europe to 2050 under a global stabilization at 450 ppmv CO2-equivalent: reductions, carbon values and optimal abatement costs

Summary Global climate change is a major problem of the 21st century. A limitation of warming to +2⁰C above pre-industrial levels should mitigate environmental degradation. Given the state of climate science, this sustainable development goal requires a stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at 450 ppmv CO2-equivalent. Over the next half century, the international community will have to reduce its GHG emissions drastically, by about 50% compared to 1990 levels. In this context, Europe has adopted an official GHG reduction target of 20% in 2020 compared to 1990, which can be increased to 30% in the event of a fair international agreement. In the long term, the EU aims at a minimum of 80% reduction in 2050, the minimum percentage required under the 450 ppmv CO2-eq. constraint. This thesis models the carbon effort in Europe to reach -80% GHG in 2050. On the projection, the OCTET (Optimal Carbon Trajectories for Emission Targets) model projects a set of temporally optimal CO2 trajectories. Effective reduction strategies are specified for the transition points (2020, 2030, 2040) based on international uncertainty. The thesis also calculates carbon price profiles in Europe for a factor 5 abatement constraint as well as abatement costs. Overall, the thesis explores the implications of a low-carbon European society and informs European abatement policy for 2050.