What can we expect from the liberalization of agricultural trade between Morocco and the European Union?

Summary This thesis analyzes access to European and Moroccan agricultural markets to better assess the effects of agricultural trade liberalization. It proposes a disaggregated and global approach to the determinants of trade through a gravity model. The first chapter discusses the debate and controversy surrounding the liberalization of agricultural trade under the association agreements between Morocco and the EU. It looks at the two subsectors that represent the challenges of opening up: the fruit and vegetable subsector and the cereal subsector. The second looks at the approach used to measure access to European and Moroccan markets. It reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on gravity models. The third presents the database of European market protection levels for fruit and vegetables, by product and by trading partner. It has been constructed to include all trade barriers. The fourth measures the impact of agricultural trade liberalization on EU fruit and vegetable imports and on Moroccan cereal imports. The border effect methodology was used to study the impact of other barriers to trade, once distance and tariffs were controlled. Our results suggest that market access does not depend solely on the influence of tariffs. Other barriers to trade, such as non-tariff barriers, may also limit market access. For Morocco, our results show that trade liberalization would have limited effects on EU imports of fruit and vegetables from Morocco and on Morocco's imports of cereal products. On the one hand, EU imports from Morocco are sensitive to tariffs compared to other trade barriers. Trade liberalization within the sector will therefore have a positive impact on Moroccan fruit and vegetable exports. However, this effect would be limited since other barriers to trade remain, once distance and tariffs are controlled. On the other hand, Moroccan cereal imports are not very sensitive to tariff elasticities. In contrast, non-tariff barriers appear to have a negative impact on Moroccan grain imports. Overall, the impact of potential agricultural trade liberalization is limited.