Global imbalances, equilibrium exchange rates and consistent stock-flow modeling.

Summary Since the mid-1990s, there has been a global increase in current account imbalances. In 2007, before the onset of the financial crisis, they represented more than 2% of global GDP in absolute terms. At the global level, the persistence of large imbalances is a threat to macroeconomic and macro-financial stability. This thesis analyzes this phenomenon of global imbalances using two complementary approaches: equilibrium exchange rates and consistent stock-flow models. These two approaches can be considered complementary in that they analyze the same problem from a different point of view. Equilibrium exchange rate approaches, and more particularly the FEER approach introduced by Williamson (1994), seek to calculate the exchange rate variations necessary to achieve a sustainable current account balance. Stock-flow coherent approaches like Godley-Lavoie (2007) seek to analyze adjustments in terms of activity levels and exchange rate dynamics, starting from a situation of current account imbalances. A return of large imbalances cannot be ruled out. It appears that international monetary cooperation aimed at preventing the return of imbalances at the international and intra-European level is a necessary condition for the global recovery.