Economic analysis of the oil producing countries’ strategies in the refining industry.

Summary The trend in the global refining market is towards closure or reduction of capacity in Europe and North America while new consumer countries, such as some producing countries, develop their industry. In recent years, oil-producing countries have announced the construction of "mega-projects" for refining and basic petrochemicals. The question of where to locate refineries has been raised many times since the 1970s, and several strands of the literature offer elements of analysis depending on the economic and political conditions of the countries. The objective of this thesis is to understand the stakes and the limits of vertical integration of producing countries in the downstream oil sector, taking into account the evolutions and perspectives on crude oil supply, the localization of demand and the increased implementation of environmental policies. An empirical analysis of the oil and macroeconomic characteristics of the oil producing countries allows us to identify the theoretical investment framework in which the announced projects fit. The literature review allows us to understand downstream integration, but the development of certain projects is more difficult to explain. From these theoretical and empirical analyses, a typology of producing countries is proposed according to their investment strategies. In addition, in order to better understand the markets for these new projects, an econometric analysis of oil product prices on the major world markets is conducted. While the relationship between the prices of refined products and crude oil is significant, in line with the literature, the price hierarchy between products reflects a change in demand. A portfolio analysis is developed to identify the efficient industrial choices that a producing country can consider to ensure its economic development by controlling the exposure to the risk of variation of its revenues. With the increase in industrial and financial stakes associated with these new refineries, the cooperation of producing countries with international majors allows them to share the risk and meet their respective economic development challenges. Each of the parties masters certain production factors that are essential to the success of a project and which, when combined, increase the overall value of the project.