The Kyoto Protocol and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM): what impacts for developing countries by 2020-2050?

Summary The objective of this thesis is to define the potential current and future effects of investment flows from Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)-type projects or any other successor mechanism. Thus, we propose an assessment of this type of investment, as perceived by developing countries in the 2020 and 2050 time frame, as well as their economic effects. We also try to define the characteristics (observed so far) of these flows and their interactions with the financial flows "classically" perceived by Developing Countries (DCs): official development assistance (ODA) and foreign direct investment (FDI). It also examines the main factors that could lead to greater benefits for recipient countries, as well as the impacts of CDMs in terms of sustainable development and technology transfer. The analysis is completed by a description of the main obstacles that exist (due to the characteristics of the receiving countries but also of the mechanism itself), of the attempted solutions already adopted as well as of the alternative mechanisms that could be put in place in the future. Thus, the analysis demonstrates the beneficial effects of CDM projects (or potential successor mechanisms) in terms of perceived investments, Carbon Reduction Units (which may result), economic growth, technology transfer and sustainable development for non-Annex I countries. In addition, the analysis highlights the importance of the absorptive capacities of these countries (notably the presence of skilled labor, availability of credit facilities and infrastructure in the field of renewable energy) in order to benefit more widely from the potential economic benefits. Thus, the implementation of a similar mechanism, improved and accompanied by capacity building programs, should be of great interest to both Annex I and non-Annex I countries in future UNFCCC negotiations.