Elements on the robustness of climate policies.

Summary This thesis focuses on improving the robustness of climate change mitigation policy evaluation techniques, as well as the robustness of implemented instruments. By exploring hundreds of scenarios that capture uncertainty about future technological, sociological and demographic developments, as well as about the availability of fossil resources and the implementation of mitigation policies, it reveals the determinants of future emissions and mitigation costs. This methodology allows for the filtering of decision-relevant information and focuses the debate on issues and policies central to the success of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies. The thesis also proposes to focus the debate on instruments that are robust to political constraints because they have few negative short-term impacts. Policies that redirect investment towards low-carbon capital - such as energy efficiency standards or financial instruments - bring us closer to long-term emissions targets without affecting the owners of the polluting capital already installed.