Macroeconomic imbalances, crises and management of crises in euro area countries.

Summary The purpose of this thesis is to study the links between macroeconomic imbalances and crises, and to see to what extent taking them into account can help improve crisis management in the eurozone countries. The different chapters of this thesis attempt to answer three important questions: What macro-financial indicators could help to better anticipate episodes of fiscal stress in eurozone countries? What would be the consequences of the implementation of a bank deposit guarantee scheme on macroeconomic variables and on the behavior of investors, investors who would take into account the risk of sovereign default? To what extent could a better quality of institutions and governance help to improve the long-term growth of an economy constrained by the international capital market? Taking a short-term approach, the first two chapters show the importance of market confidence in the analysis of the link between macroeconomic imbalances and crises. In the third chapter, we adopt a longer-term perspective to analyze the effects of market confidence on growth dynamics. Our approach is both theoretical and empirical. The theoretical approach is based on DSGE models (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models) and the modeling of a crisis in a small open economy. The empirical approach focuses on Probit/Logit models on panel data and on an early warning indicators model.