Fear and loathing on the campaign trail 2016-18 : migrants, refugees and the rise of far right populism.

Summary The first chapter analyzes the impact of a relatively large and homogeneous influx of Polish immigrants on the United Kingdom and what effect this shock had on the 2016 Brexit vote. I find that Polish immigration to the UK increased the Brexit vote but not enough to explain the decision to leave the European Union. In order to obtain exogenous variation in the distribution of Polish immigrants I rely on the development of migrant networks close to the wartime resettlement camps created for Polish soldiers after World War II whose location I collect from national archives. In the second chapter I use the dismantling of illegal migrant camps near Calais and the subsequent distribution of migrants to study the impact of exposure to few migrants over a short period of time. I find that exposure to few migrants reduces the National Front vote (the French far-right party) but that this effect dissipates if large groups of migrants are relocated. In this case, contact as well as the relative size of the group play an important role in the reaction of natives to migrants. In the last chapter I analyze the impact of the refugee crisis on political demand and supply in Italy. I show that the opening of small migrant reception centers in Italy has reduced the far-right vote, hate crimes against immigrants as well as increased the vote for left-wing parties. The effects come mainly from municipalities that are less connected to the internet.