GHIL Michael

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Noise modifies the behavior of chaotic systems in both quantitative and qualitative ways. To study these modifications, the present work compares the topological structure of the deterministic Lorenz (1963) attractor with its stochastically perturbed version. The deterministic attractor is well known to be "strange" but it is frozen in time. When driven by multiplicative noise, the Lorenz model's random attractor (LORA) evolves in time. Algebraic topology sheds light on the most striking effects involved in such an evolution. In order to examine the topological structure of the snapshots that approximate LORA, we use Branched Manifold Analysis through Homologies (BraMAH)-a technique originally introduced to characterize the topological structure of deterministically chaotic flows-which is being extended herein to nonlinear noise-driven systems. The analysis is performed for a fixed realization of the driving noise at different time instants in time. The results suggest that LORA's evolution includes sharp transitions that appear as topological tipping points.

The past 3.2 Myr have seen drastic climate changes with the development, waxing and waning of huge continental ice sheets over the Northern Hemisphere. These striking phenomena have been observed in various records from ice cores, as well as marine and terrestrial sediments. These proxy records showed periodicities associated with the three orbital parameters that affect our planet's insolation, namely eccentricity, obliquity and precession. Until recently, these periodicities were considered as the canonical ones for the Quaternary Period and beyond. However, the improvement of the time resolution of available records has allowed one to describe climate changes occurring abruptly and with periodicities that are not related to those of the orbital parameters. In this paper, we show that, in fact, these abrupt climate changes may still be related, albeit indirectly, to the astronomical theory of climate.

The impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the extratropics is investigated in an idealized, reduced-order model that has a tropical and an extratropical module. Unidirectional ENSO forcing is used to mimick the atmospheric bridge between the tropics and the extratropics. The variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere extratropical module is then investigated through the analysis of its pullback attractors (PBAs). This analysis focuses on two types of ENSO forcing generated by the tropical module, one periodic and the other aperiodic. For a substantial range of the ENSO forcing, two chaotic PBAs are found to coexist for the same set of parameter values. Different types of extratropical low-frequency variability (LFV) are associated with either PBA over the parameter ranges explored. For periodic ENSO forcing, the coexisting PBAs exhibit only weak nonlinear instability. For chaotic forcing, though, they are quite unstable and certain extratropical perturbations induce transitions between the two PBAs. These distinct stability properties may have profound consequences for extratropical climate predictions: in particular, ensemble averaging may no longer help isolate the LFV signal.

Abrupt climate changes constitute a relatively new field of research, which addresses variations occurring in a relatively short time interval of tens to a hundred years. Such time scales do not correspond to the tens or hundreds of thousands of years that the astronomical theory of climate addresses. The latter theory involves parameters that are external to the climate system and whose multi-periodic variations are reliably known and almost constant for a large extent of Earth history. Abrupt changes, conversely, appear to involve fast processes that are internal to the climate system. these processes varied considerably during the past 2.6 Myr, and yielded more irregular fluctuations. In this paper, we reexamine the main climate variations determined from the U1308 North Atlantic marine record, which yields a detailed calving history of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the past 3.2 Myr. The magnitude and periodicity of the ice-rafted debris (IRD) events observed in the U1308 record allow one to determine the timing of several abrupt climate changes, the larger ones corresponding to the massive iceberg discharges labeled Heinrich events (HEs). In parallel, abrupt warmings, called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, have been identified in the Greenland records of the last glaciation cycle. Combining the HE and DO observations, we study a complex mechanism that may lead to the observed millennial-scale variability corresponding to the abrupt climate changes of last 0.9 Myr. This mechanism relies on amended Bond cycles, which group DO events and the associated Greenland stadials into a trend of increased cooling, with IRD events embedded into every stadial, the latest of these being an HE. These Bond cycles may have occurred during the last 0.9 Ma when Northern Hemisphere ice sheets reached their maximum extent and volume, thus becoming a major player in this time interval's climate dynamics. Since the waxing and waning of ice sheets during the Quaternary period are orbitally paced, we conclude that the abrupt climate changes observed during the Mid and Upper Pleistocene are therewith indirectly linked to the astronomical theory of climate.

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Noise modifies the behavior of chaotic systems. Algebraic topology sheds light on the most fundamental effects involved, as illustrated herein by using the Lorenz (1963) model. This model's attractor is "strange" but frozen in time. When driven by multiplicative noise, the Lorenz model's random attractor (LORA) evolves in time. Here, we use Branched Manifold Analysis through Homologies (BraMAH) to describe LORA's coarse-grained topology. BraMAH is thus extended from deterministic flows to noise-driven systems. LORA's homology groups change in time and differ from the deterministic one.

No summary available.