CREPON Bruno

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This thesis is in the field of Political and Public Economics. Through the use of quasi-experimental methods and administrative data, its goal is to achieve a better understanding of the behavior of citizens and elected officials.The first two chapters, in collaboration with Vincent Pons, study voter behavior. The first chapter assesses the extent to which voters vote expressively or strategically and the consequences for electoral outcomes. We exploit the threshold that determines the qualification of candidates for the second round of the French legislative and cantonal elections. Using the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) method, we compare the electoral results according to whether two or three candidates are running. The results show that the presence of a third candidate significantly increases voter turnout and reduces the number of votes obtained by the first two candidates. More importantly, in about one-fifth of the elections, the presence of a third candidate causes the loss of the candidate who was ideologically closest to the first two. We thus show that a large fraction of voters prefer to vote expressively rather than strategically and that, in this context, majority rule often leads to suboptimal results.The second chapter explores the type of information that may affect the behavior of voters and candidates, by assessing the impact of a specific piece of information: the ranking of candidates. Using an RDD, we isolate the impact of the ranking of candidates in the first round on the results of the second round, in French elections where up to three or four candidates can qualify for the second round. We show that being marginally ranked first, second or third in the first round significantly increases the probability that a candidate will continue to run in the second round and win. The impact remains significant even when only two candidates qualify (and thus there is no room for strategic voting), suggesting that the desire to vote for the winner plays a key role in voters' voting decision.The third chapter studies the behavior of elected officials and in particular the reluctance of mayors to cooperate on public policy. I exploit the 2010 law, which in France forced non-integrated communes to join an intercommunality. I study the causal impact of their integration using the double difference method. My results show that communes resisted in order to avoid the local economic consequences of integration: urban communes resisted in order to avoid the construction of new housing, while rural communes resisted in order to avoid the loss of local public services. I note first that the communes forced to join an intercommunality experienced a significant increase in the number of building permits issued per year. This effect is mainly manifested in densely built-up communes that face a high demand for real estate: communes where more construction would increase congestion, and where residents are therefore likely to be subject to the NIMBY (Not In My BackYard) syndrome. Secondly, I show, through the exploitation of data on municipal day-care centers and libraries, that rural municipalities have suffered a decrease in the number of local public services. Finally, the results show that communes forced to integrate benefited from higher tax revenues and better access to public transport, but that these benefits were not sufficient to offset the negative effects of integration.

This thesis explores the impact of information on job search behavior and demand for vocational training.The first chapter evaluates the impact of the Bob Emploi website, which aims to deliver information to job seekers about the labor market. The results indicate that there is no impact on job seekers' search effort and geographic and sectoral scope of the search. However, job seekers who use Bob Emploi mobilize their personal network and public employment services more. Finally, there is no effect on well-being and return to employment.The second chapter examines the role of information on entering job training. Results indicate that receiving an email with a message emphasizing post-training return-to-work opportunities more than doubles the likelihood that job seekers will call the training center again. However, callback rates are low in absolute terms (less than 1%) and there is no impact on training enrollment. Our results suggest that the impact detected on calls is due more to the increase in importance placed on training information than to the updating of job seekers' beliefs.Finally, the third chapter also studies the demand for vocational training, but takes into account behavioral constraints. Distinguishing between "external" (world) and "internal" (self) beliefs, the results show that jobseekers are financially constrained from joining a training program, and that they underestimate the proportion of available training that is funded. Internal barriers related to self-efficacy, inter-temporal preferences, self-esteem, and organizational skills are mentioned equally by jobseekers indicating internal barriers to enrolling in training. Based on this diagnosis, the last part is devoted to the design of a randomized controlled trial, with interventions based on the transmission of information via online courses, and interactive sessions by groups of job seekers. These courses aim to target external beliefs, internal beliefs, or both simultaneously.

In her article "L'objectivité sous contrôle : analyse d'une évaluation randomisée de programmes d'accompagnement des demandeurs d'emploi" (Objectivity under control: analysis of a randomized evaluation of job-seeker support programs), published in the 2019 issue, 60, 1, pp. 71-92 of the Revue française de sociologie, Claire Vivès analyzes the use by its sponsors (the ANPE, Unédic and the Ministry of Labor) of an evaluation that we conducted as researchers. Her thesis is that the implementation of a randomized evaluation gives rise to strategic behaviors on the part of the sponsors aimed at manipulating or controlling the results and their dissemination, which "modifies the reality observed". We agree with many aspects of this analysis, and there is no doubt that an evaluation, randomized or not, in a high-stakes political context induces such intentions on the part of institutions, and they are clearly illustrated and analyzed here.

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The back cover states: "This second edition, which has been completely revised, corrected and updated, offers a complete and in-depth presentation of the econometric techniques most commonly used in practice, ranging from the linear model and its extensions to non-linear techniques for processing discrete and censored data. An appendix provides all the necessary reminders of linear algebra and statistics. Particular attention is also devoted to tools for the evaluation of public policies: randomized evaluations, difference estimators, score methods. The techniques presented are systematically illustrated by examples based on real data or the presentation of research work devoted to the evaluation of public policies (labor economics, industrial economics, etc.). This book places identification problems at the center of the econometric approach. The presentation emphasizes the link between theoretical modeling, econometric specification and the nature of the data.

This thesis explores different determinants of job search behavior, with the aim of understanding some of the barriers to returning to work for the most disadvantaged workers. The first chapter is devoted to the impact evaluation of an innovative collective support program for unemployed youth in sensitive urban areas. This program appears to be more effective than a traditional program in providing access to stable employment. The largest effect is detected among participants who are assigned to a group with unemployed people in great difficulty. In the second chapter, I study the impact of an information shock on the job search and return probability of the unemployed. My results suggest that providing information that allows the unemployed to direct their applications to firms that are most likely to make short-term hires can correct some inequalities in access to employment and stimulate geographic mobility. The third chapter explores the underlying mechanisms behind the negative effect of unemployment insurance duration on the return-to-work rate. Search effort increases by 25 percent in the months surrounding the end date of unemployment insurance entitlement, even when the impact of dynamic selection is neutralized. An extension of unemployment insurance affects job search behavior mainly through a decline in the peak in job search intensity observed around the date of exhaustion of entitlements.

This handbook provides a comprehensive and in-depth presentation of the most widely used econometric techniques in practice, ranging from the linear model and its extensions to nonlinear techniques for handling discrete and censored data. This second edition, entirely revised, corrected and updated, offers a complete and in-depth presentation of the econometric techniques most commonly used in practice, ranging from the linear model and its extensions to nonlinear techniques for processing discrete and censored data. An appendix provides all the necessary reminders of linear algebra and statistics. Particular attention is also devoted to tools for the evaluation of public policies: randomized evaluations, difference estimators, score methods. The techniques presented are systematically illustrated by examples based on real data or the presentation of research work devoted to the evaluation of public policies (labor economics, industrial economics, etc.). This book places identification problems at the center of the econometric approach. The presentation emphasizes the link between theoretical modeling, econometric specification and the nature of the data. The book is intended for undergraduate and graduate students in economics, management or business school, but also for professionals wishing to deepen their knowledge of the techniques used in the use of econometrics for evaluation purposes.

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In the first chapter I show that when minorities work with managers who are more biased against their type, they perform significantly worse on a range of performance indicators. In contrast, they are more productive when working with unbiased managers. This is an empirical fact that reveals a self-fulfilling prophecy that biased managers make minorities less productive and this generates statistical discrimination in company hiring policy. The second chapter I explore how changing the value of a job vacancy by offering free recruiting services to companies affects its job supply. By offering free recruitment services it greatly increases the number of job offers posted on Pôle emploi and generates an increase in permanent job creation. This suggests that active labor market policies targeting the recruitment process of companies can have a substantial added value on the labor market. In the last chapter, it is shown that the Charlie Hebdo attacks caused a net reduction in the job search efforts of minorities compared to the majority. Employers are also reducing their search efforts for minorities, but only for permanent jobs. This decrease is partially offset by an increase in job search efforts by Pôle emploi counselors after the shock, but only in regions where latent discrimination, as measured by the share of local votes for the National Front, is relatively low.

Introduction Prenatal care is recommended during pregnancy to improve neonatal and maternal outcomes. Women of lower socioeconomic status (SES) are less compliant to recommended prenatal care and suffer a higher risk of adverse perinatal outcomes. Several attempts to encourage optimal pregnancy follow-up have shown controversial results, particularly in high-income countries. Few studies have assessed financial incentives to encourage prenatal care, and none reported materno-fetal events as the primary outcome. Our study aims to determine whether financial incentives could improve pregnancy outcomes in women with low SES in a high-income country. Methods and analysis This pragmatic cluster-randomised clinical trial includes pregnant women with the following criteria: (1) age above 18 years, (2) first pregnancy visit before 26 weeks of gestation and (3) belonging to a socioeconomically disadvantaged group. The intervention consists in offering financial incentives conditional on attending scheduled pregnancy follow-up consultations. Clusters are 2-month periods with random turnover across centres. A composite outcome of maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality is the primary endpoint. Secondary endpoints include maternal or neonatal outcomes assessed separately, qualitative assessment of the perception of the intervention and cost-effectiveness analysis for which children will be followed to the end of their first year through the French health insurance database. The study started in June 2016, and based on an expected decrease in the primary endpoint from 18% to 14% in the intervention group, we plan to include 2000 women in each group. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval was first gained on 28 September 2014. An independent data security and monitoring committee has been established. Results of the main trial and each of the secondary analyses will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. Trial registration number NCT02402855. pre-results.

The back cover states: "With unemployment, we've tried everything!" said François Mitterrand thirty years ago. It would probably be appropriate to add "but have we given ourselves the means to learn? Because we have not invested enough in a truly scientific evaluation of our employment policies, our knowledge of the causes of unemployment and our ability to solve it has not progressed much. Some training, employment subsidy and support programs implemented in developed countries have been meticulously evaluated. The weakness of their impacts demonstrates that unemployment cannot be eradicated by investing in this or that type of action. But these programs can be improved and can help us get rid of unemployment. This requires careful analysis of needs and behaviors, as well as broader use of rigorous evaluation. Ultimately, isn't it our impatience to test actions without giving ourselves time to study their effects that has trapped us in long-term unemployment?

"With unemployment, we have tried everything", said François Mitterrand thirty years ago. We should probably add "but have we given ourselves the means to learn? Because we have not invested enough in a truly scientific evaluation of our employment policies, our knowledge of the causes of unemployment and our ability to solve it has not progressed much. Some training, employment subsidy and support programs implemented in developed countries have been meticulously evaluated. The weakness of their impacts demonstrates that unemployment cannot be eradicated by investing in this or that type of action. But these programs can be improved and can help us get rid of unemployment. This requires careful analysis of needs and behaviors, as well as broader use of rigorous evaluation. In the end, isn't it our impatience to test actions without giving ourselves time to study their effects that has trapped us in long-term unemployment?

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We propose a novel selectivity correction procedure to deal with survey attrition in treatment effect models, at the crossroads of the Heckit model and the bounding approach of Lee (2009). As a substitute for the instrument needed in sample selectivity correction models, we use information on the number of prior calls made to each individual before obtaining a response to the survey. We obtain sharp bounds to the average treatment effect on the common support of responding individuals. Because the number of prior calls brings information, we can obtain tighter bounds than in other nonparametric methods.

We evaluate an experimental program in which the French public employment service anonymized résumés for firms that were hiring. Firms were free to participate or not. participating firms were then randomly assigned to receive either anonymous résumés or name-bearing ones. We find that participating firms become less likely to interview and hire minority candidates when receiving anonymous résumés. We show how these unexpected results can be explained by the self-selection of firms into the program and by the fact that anonymization prevents the attenuation of negative signals when the candidate belongs to a minority.

We report results from a randomized evaluation of a microcredit program introduced in rural areas of Morocco in 2006. Thirteen percent of the households in treatment villages took a loan, and none in control villages did. Among households identified as more likely to borrow, microcredit access led to a significant rise in investment in assets used for self-employment activities, and an increase in profit, but also to a reduction in income from casual labor. Overall there was no gain in income or consumption. We find suggestive evidence that these results are mainly driven by effects on borrowers, rather than by externalities.

This thesis proposes to evaluate the methods and organization of job seeker support within a private placement operator, the firm Sodie, in order to extract the main performance levers. In the first chapter, we analyze the theoretical and empirical effects generated by the support systems on the one hand, and by the use of outsourcing on the other. The second chapter deals with the French institutional framework of job-seeker support. We show to what extent the French public employment service meets the criteria of effectiveness set out in the previous chapter. In the third chapter, we study how the diversification of the firm's missions, and in particular the subcontracting for Pôle Emploi, has modified the work of the counsellors, but also the organization of the structure as well as its support methodologies. Chapter 4 deals with a controlled experimentation of two devices: the monthly reclassification commitments and the implementation of an Enterprise Relation platform intended to prospect the hidden job market. We measure the impact of a change in methodology on the sustainable reclassification of supported jobseekers. Chapter 5 focuses on the effects of an information shock. We show how the profiling information is used by the counselors through the impact on the selected candidates and their outplacement performance.

This paper reports the results of a large-scaled randomized controlled experiment comparing the public and private provision of counseling to job seekers. The intention-to-treat estimates of both programs are not statistically different, but more workers were enrolled in the private program, implying an effect per beneficiary that is twice as large under the public as under the private program. We find suggestive evidence that the private firms may have insufficiently mastered the counseling technology, and exercised less effort on those who had the best chance to find a job. This highlights the incentive problems in designing contracts for these services.

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This paper reports the results of a large scaled randomized controlled experiment comparing the public and private provision of counseling to job-seekers. The intention-to-treat estimates of both programs are not statistically different, but more workers were enrolled in the private program, implying an effect per beneficiary that is twice as large under the public as under the private program. We find suggestive evidence that the private firms may have insu fficiently mastered the counseling technology, and exercised less effort on those who had the best chance to find a job. This highlights the incentive problems in designing contracts for these services.

This paper reports the results from a randomized evaluation of a microcredit program introduced in rural areas of Morocco starting in 2006 by Al Amana, the country’s largest microfinance institution. Al Amana was the only MFI operating in the study areas during the evaluation period. Thirteen percent of the households in treatment villages took a loan, and none in control villages. Among households identified as more likely to borrow based on ex-ante characteristics, microcredit access led to a significant rise in investment in assets used for self-employment activities (mainly animal husbandry and agriculture), and an increase in profit. But this increase in profit was offset by a reduction in income from casual labor, so overall there was no gain in measured income or consumption. We find suggestive evidence that these results are mainly driven by effects on borrowers, rather than by externalities on households that do not borrow. This implies that among those who chose to borrow, microcredit had large, albeit very heterogeneous, impacts on assets and profits from self-employment activities, but small impact on consumption: we can reject an increase in consumption of more than 10% among borrowers, two years after initial rollout.

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This article reports the results from a randomized experiment designed to evaluate the direct and indirect (displacement) impacts of job placement assistance on the labor market outcomes of young, educated job seekers in France. We use a two-step design. In the first step, the proportions of job seekers to be assigned to treatment (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%) were randomly drawn for each of the 235 labor markets (e.g., cities) participating in the experiment. Then, in each labor market, eligible job seekers were randomly assigned to the treatment, following this proportion. After eight months, eligible, unemployed youths who were assigned to the program were significantly more likely to have found a stable job than those who were not. But these gains are transitory, and they appear to have come partly at the expense of eligible workers who did not benefit from the program, particularly in labor markets where they compete mainly with other educated workers, and in weak labor markets. Overall, the program seems to have had very little net benefits.

In this paper we discuss how the " encouragement design "used in randomized controlled trials can be extended to a setting with two treatments and one control group. Conditions to interpret the Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimates causally are stronger than in the case with only one treatment and one control group. A rst case where a causal interpretation holds is when only those assigned to one of the two treatments can e ectively enter the corresponding program. A second case is when there are always takers. In that second case, entry rates into a given program should be the same among those assigned to the control group and those assigned to the other program. this restriction can be tested from the data. In cases where the restriction is rejected, we derive bounds to the Local Average Treatment E ect (LATE) based on weaker monotonicity conditions. We illustrate the results using data from a large randomized experiment where job seekers at risk of long term unemployment can receive a reinforced counseling scheme o ered either by the public or the private sector, or remain on a standard track.

The essays in this thesis use empirical evidence to answer two questions that are of central importance given our growing understanding of the relationship between social preferences and economic growth and welfare at the country level: the basis for prosocial behavior and the impact of policies aimed at increasing it. Levels of prosocial behavior have often been taken as fixed, but these tests provide evidence that they are susceptible to change from policy interventions. Given that there are few interventions specifically focused on trust and cooperation, there may be considerable scope for improving well-being by increasing policy focus on this issue. This is what is demonstrated in these essays. Chapter 1 discusses the foundations of pro-social behavior using different frameworks in demands for a contribution to the public good, and shows that information about the social norm is the most powerful motivating factor. Chapter 2 provides empirical and theoretical results that pro-social behavior at the community level (by contributing to local public services) depends on the expected effectiveness of that behavior. Chapter 3 provides new results on the impact of trust at the individual level, and shows that a childhood training program that increased trust (as well as improved attention and reduced delinquency), triggered a chain of events to improve long-term outcomes in terms of education, crime, and economic performance.

The main objective of this thesis is to gain a better understanding of the factors influencing the health status of individuals by looking at the determinants of health demand but also at the possible sources of its alteration. Chapter 2 aims to gain a better understanding of the determinants of the demand for prevention among retired people. Although the services offered by the Caisse Nationale d'Assurance Vieillesse have been greatly diversified in recent years, demand remains very low. By setting up a randomized evaluation, we aim to determine the nature of the obstacles to the adoption of preventive measures. We show that providing risk information is an effective policy. The objective of Chapter 3 is to evaluate the impact of an information campaign on health care utilization in Mali. Because the campaign could not be conducted in all health districts at the same time for logistical reasons, it was conducted in three waves. We use these exogenous temporal variations to evaluate the effect of this campaign on the demand for care. Giving information led to a large increase in the use of prenatal consultations and assisted deliveries. Chapter 4 shows that the work environment can have a significant impact on the health status of individuals. The difficulties of identifying endogeneity problems are overcome by exploiting the exogenous nature of European directives aimed at reforming the French energy sector. Organizational changes have had an effect on the psychological health of workers.

This doctoral thesis aims to contribute to the debate on the origin of ethnic discrimination, by focusing on the population of African immigrants in France and on that of African-Americans in the United States. Specifically, by analyzing French and American microeconomic data, it identifies the existence of discrimination based on the principle of employer and consumer preferences and their effect on the weakening of the economic situation of these two minority groups. It establishes the importance of indirect discrimination on the part of consumers, and suggests that it is essential to know the origins of ethnic discrimination in order to establish public policies capable of effectively combating this phenomenon. The first chapter offers a descriptive analysis of the access of working people according to their geographical origins to customer-facing jobs in France. It shows that immigrants in France, and African immigrants in particular, have less access to jobs in contact with the public. In order to analyze whether consumers play a role in this underrepresentation, the second chapter formulates a test strategy to distinguish between consumer and employer discrimination. The existence of these two sources of discrimination against African immigrants is then proven through the use of the French population census. Using the previous test strategy, the third chapter reveals the presence of this source of discrimination against African-Americans in the United States.

The purpose of this paper is to present some microeconomics and microeconometrics work related to the economics of research and development as well as some theoretical econometrics work. I examine how research strategies can influence the formation of market structures, and the respective roles of policy instruments such as patents and cooperation agreements in correcting the effects of research externalities. In terms of microeconomics, I try to assess some of the key characteristics of innovation. Thus, I try to measure how research activity allows to shift the frontiers of production possibilities. I also seek to understand the characteristics of the production of technological innovations by estimating a research production function. A final empirical study is devoted to the analysis of the relationship between market structures and innovative activity in which I use different measures of innovative activity: research expenditures, the number of patents filed and different information on the output of the innovation process available through recent innovation surveys. The work of theoretical econometrics is devoted on the one hand to the question of the elimination of nuisance parameters in cases of inference based on the method of generalized moments. On the other hand, I am interested in the selectivity bias in panels. Considering the case of an autoregressive model, I propose an estimation method which under general assumptions allows to estimate without specifying the law of the disappearance of the observations.