CHOJNICKI Xavier

The objective of this article is to differentiate the role played by transversal skills and professional skills, accumulated by migrants in their home country, on their chances of getting a job in France, as well as on the adequacy between different job characteristics (socio-professional category and wage) and pre-migratory skills. To quantify the impact of the transferability of human capital, we use the data from the Trajectories and Origins survey (2008). We show that pre-migration human capital plays an important role both in obtaining employment and in maintaining or furthering one’s socio-occupational position, as well as in remuneration. Using several indicators of immigrant integration, quantitative and qualitative, we show that, with the exception of language skills, other transversal skills do not play the expected role. Conversely, professional skills allow for better economic integration. Nevertheless, we show that certain pre-migratory professional skills are not transferable and hence they are associated with low economic integration, the effect that is persistent over time.

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This thesis proposes an evaluation of the pension system in Morocco and its ongoing reform process, using a dynamic microsimulation model. It is structured around two distinct and complementary parts that allow us to build the scenario of extending pension coverage for non-salaried workers. In the first part, we begin by studying the nature of the demographic changes facing the pension system, the way in which past reforms have tried to respond to them and the unresolved issues. Then, using data from the Haut-Commissariat au Plan, we carry out an empirical study that measures informal employment, identifies its characteristics and determinants, and examines the reasons for its existence, i.e., whether it is suffered or chosen. The second part of this thesis consists, in the first instance, in describing all the work carried out in the construction of the dynamic microsimulation model. We then develop a detailed explanation of the steps and techniques adopted and written in R language, using programming tools developed for the rewriting of the Destinie model of INSEE. Subsequently, we propose an evaluation of the last parametric reform of the Moroccan Pension Fund (2016), comparing it to the projected evolutions using the programmed model. Finally, we use the same model to simulate reform options to create pension coverage for informal workers.

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Many OECD countries are faced with the considerable challenge of a physician shortage. This paper investigates the strategies that OECD governments adopt and determines whether these policies effectively address these medical shortages. Due to the amount of time medical training requires, it takes longer for an expansion in medical school capacity to have an effect than the recruitment of foreign-trained physicians. Using data obtained from the OECD (2014) and Bhargava et al. (2011), we constructed a unique country-level panel dataset that includes annual data for 17 OECD countries on physician shortages, the number of medical school graduates and immigration and emigration rates from 1991 to 2004. By calculating panel fixed-effect estimates, we find that after a period of medical shortages, OECD governments produce more medical graduates in the long run but in the short term, they primarily recruit from abroad. however, at the same time, certain practising physicians choose to emigrate. Simulation results show the limits of recruiting only abroad in the long term but also highlight its appropriateness for the short term when there is a recurrent cycle of shortages/surpluses in the labour supply of physicians (pig cycle theory).

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A BETTER UNDERSTANDING of the resource allocation across ages is fundamental to put in place welfare reforms in the context of population ageing. In times of major demographic change, the redistribution of resources between age groups and the funding of the economically inactive aged remains a recurring topic of public debate and a major public policy concern in OECD countries. Governments search for a policy mix that will improve the quality of life of the elderly, while at the same time investing in the future of the young and reducing the fiscal burden on the working population. Life expectancy and education requirements are increasing while budget constraints are tightening. This potentially creates tension in the allocation of resources between age groups (Preston 1984. Lee and Mason 2011a). Some authors have shown the negative impact that a growing share of elderly could have on education spending for the young (Poterba 1997, 1998. Harris et al. 2001). The compact between the generations could suffer as a result (United Nations 2013a. Chen et al. 2018).

This article provides a comprehensive overview of how the funding of consumption at different ages is shared between the State, the individual and the family. By applying the National Transfer Accounts method for France, we developed a unique database to analyze how the funding of consumption is secured at each age, how its structure has changed over time, and how the consumption is financed in France compared to that of a set of other developed countries. We find that the elderly in France finance themselves increasingly by their own means, even though public funding of this age group remains significant in France in comparison to other countries. Conversely, the young rely more and more on the State to finance their consumption. Within our sample, France is the country where the young benefited most from public transfers.

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The issue of immigration in host economies is nowadays at the center of political, economic and social concerns. Immigration is perceived today as a problem rather than an opportunity for host societies in general and France in particular. The results of the Transatlantic Trends survey between 2008 and 2013 show that in France, public opinion on immigration has deteriorated significantly. To the question do you perceive immigration as a problem rather than an opportunity? 50% of French respondents answered in the affirmative in 2013. This percentage was only 39% in 2008. In parallel to this situation, demographic projections show an aging population and immigration could be a solution to this problem. The objective of this thesis is to analyze, in this context of demographic aging, the economic effects of immigration by focusing on its impact on public finances and household demand in France. It thus contributes to the literature on the costs and benefits of immigration in host countries. It also analyzes the economic consequences of a policy decision on immigration, testing the effects of changes in migration policies on public finances and the effects of income increases on the consumption of native and immigrant households. The thesis is structured around two main parts: the first part focuses on the budgetary impact of immigration, with an accounting assessment in the first chapter and a dynamic assessment using a general equilibrium model in the second chapter. The second part of the thesis focuses on the consumption of immigrants in France. Here again, two chapters are distinguished: the first measures the contribution of immigrants to final demand and the second analyzes the consumption behavior of native and immigrant households.

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Demographic aging in France is a major concern and is the subject of several studies from an economic point of view. Most studies highlight the negative effects of aging on the French economy, particularly on social welfare accounts and the labor market. Recently, a new literature on aging has emerged. This literature seeks to identify and show how aging can be an opportunity for the economy. This thesis is part of this literature. It seeks to answer the following question: Can aging be an opportunity for the French economy? To answer this question, the thesis explores the savings and consumption tracks, with an emphasis on the consumption part. The thesis is articulated in five chapters. Chapter 1 describes the causes of demographic aging in France and reviews studies on the effect of this phenomenon on the French economy. Chapter 2 analyzes the evolution of income, consumption and savings over the life cycle and across generations in order to understand the evolution of aggregate consumption and savings in an aging society and with generational turnover. These results also make it possible to compare the standard of living of different age groups and generations. Chapter 3 focuses on the evolution of the consumption structure according to age, generations and following a change in household income. Chapter 4 starts from the observation of the change in consumption structure over time, the difference in consumption structure between working-age households and senior citizens to estimate equivalence scales from 1979 to 2010, for senior citizens and working-age households. These scales make it possible to compare the standard of living of seniors and working-age households, taking into account economies of scale within the different households. Finally, Chapter 5 uses a general equilibrium model to quantify the effect of aging on the consumption, production and employment structure.

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Immigration is often seen as an instrument of adaptation for ageing countries. In this paper, we evaluate, using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the contribution of migration policy in reducing the tax burden associated with the ageing population in France. Four alternative scenarios, compared with a baseline scenario based on official projections, are simulated with the aim of quantifying the effects of immigration on French social protection finances. We show that the age and, to a lesser extent, the skill structure of immigrants are the key features that mainly determine the effects on social protection finances. Overall, these effects are all the more positive in the short to medium term if the migration policy is selective (in favor of more skilled workers). In the long term, the beneficial effects of a selective policy may disappear. But whatever the degree of selectivity of the migration policy, the financial gains from higher consequent migration flows are relatively moderate compared with the demographic changes implied by ageing.

The objective of this thesis is to define the role of health care expenditures in the French health care system and, in particular, to identify the extent to which health care represents a cost or an investment. It is based on a study of the interdependencies between health care and sick leave for more than 100,000 employees monitored between 2009 and 2012. The results demonstrate the dual preventive and curative component of any care.Our first work consists in identifying the additional cost of care due to ill health, based on a model regressing the cost of care on the fact of having been absent in 2012: there is then a significant cost of this care assimilated to consumption.Based on a Poisson model with inflation of zeros, we then reflect on the determinants of sick leave, and in particular on the role of the sector of activity in a portfolio of private sector employees. It appears that while the difference in sick leave reflects working conditions, the disparity in duration is more akin to employment conditions and social climate.We also look at the preventive role of health care, since it significantly reduces the future number of days of sick leave, using a fish model on panel data that takes into account the problem of initial condition.Our final classification of health care utilization and sick leave behavior shows health capital as a continuum in which investments are made.

The question of whether migration can serve as a channel for regional adjustment to asymmetric shocks is crucial in an economic and monetary union. It is of particular interest within the Eurozone where countries do not have flexible exchange rates as an adjustment mechanism. By moving from countries with high unemployment to countries with better employment prospects, intra-European migrants should help countries to adjust to asymmetric shocks and lead to a more efficient allocation of resources within the free migration regime. This policy brief exploits the 2008 economic crisis to investigate how labor market disparities between EU15 countries affected intra-European migration. Our main contributions are threefold. First, over the period 2000-2013, we find that intra-European migration indeed responds to regional differences in employment conditions: a rise in unemployment differences between two EU15 countries fosters migration to the country with the better employment conditions. Second, we find that the 2008 economic crisis led to a strong reallocation of individuals within the EU15 between the southern countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) which were the most affected by the crisis and the least affected countries, such as Denmark and the UK. Third, our results indicate that responsiveness to regional employment disparities is far greater among non-EU15 immigrants, compared to European-born people. This finding suggests that the mobility of Europeans within the EU15 could be greater, a hypothesis that is consistent with the higher mobility observed in the United States. Improving cross-country portability of social rights within the EU could thus be a relevant reform to foster intra-EU mobility.

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The French population is aging and will continue to do so in the future. The negative consequences of this demographic change on the economy are well known. However, the extent of these consequences will depend, among other things, on the evolution of labor productivity. In order to analyze the future evolution of labor productivity in France, this thesis focused on the role of health care expenditures in the economy. Indeed, on the one hand, health expenditures, by improving the health of the population, increase labor productivity. On the other hand, they promote the aging of the population by increasing life expectancy. Thus, this thesis aims to verify whether the productivity gains generated by health expenditures are sufficient to cancel out the negative effects of population aging. We theoretically demonstrate that private health expenditures generate a positive externality improving labor efficiency and consequently labor productivity (Chapter I). However, our empirical results underline that this positive effect is not significant when we consider health expenditures that remain at the expense of patients (Chapter II). The productivity gains allowed by the future improvement of French health are then measured using a generational accounting model. The productivity gains appear to be significant but insufficient to offset the negative effects of demographic ageing (Chapter III). This observation is confirmed by the results provided by our general equilibrium model (Chapter IV).

Immigration is often seen as an instrument of adaptation for ageing countries. In this paper, we evaluate, using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the contribution of migration policy in reducing the tax burden associated with the ageing population in France. Four alternative scenarios, compared with a baseline scenario based on official projections, are simulated with the aim of quantifying the effects of immigration on French social protection finances. We show that the age and, to a lesser extent, the skill structure of immigrants are the key features that mainly determine the effects on social protection finances. Overall, these effects are all the more positive in the short to medium term if the migration policy is selective (in favour of more skilled workers). In the long term, the beneficial effects of a selective policy may disappear. But whatever the degree of selectivity of the migration policy, the financial gains from higher consequent migration flows are relatively moderate compared with the demographic changes implied by ageing.

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This thesis focuses on understanding the economic effects of immigration by comparing the cases of France and the United States. Immigration changes economic conditions. of the host country through two main channels: the labor market and public finances. Two types of approaches are proposed to study the issue: generational accounting and computable general equilibrium. This thesis first shows that the current immigration policy appears to be very neutral on fiscal balances in France. The level. The level of education of migrants is the determining variable of their impact on the economy considered. Thus, the implementation of a more selective policy on the level of education of future flows generates long-term gains. If the educational level of migrants is at the heart of their fiscal impact, then extending the analysis to the whole population leads to a reduction in fiscal imbalances due to educational progress. Second, using a computable general equilibrium model confirms these results for both countries. Contrary to the recent literature, we show a non-negligible net gain from immigration but moderate redistributive effects. The model also shows that post-war immigration to the United States has had only a small impact on macroeconomic variables, but that it increases the welfare of all the native-born cohorts considered.