GLACHANT Jerome

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A firm operating in a deterministic, continuous-time world uses a simple Cobb-Douglas technology with diminishing returns and faces complex factor adjustment costs. On the one hand, a proportional hiring cost applies to the irreversible labor factor. On the other hand, investing requires paying a fixed but proportional cost to the labor force present in the firm. The firm then determines its hiring and investment policy that maximizes the present value of its cash flows. The combination of fixed and variable costs implies a non-trivial cycle of factor adjustment in which there is a continuous hiring episode, followed by a hiring freeze and then a simultaneous peak in investment and hiring. The paper proposes a numerical evaluation of the effects of the size of the fixed cost on the life cycle of the firm.

Several recent studies have shown that investors in asset markets form their expectations by extrapolating the most recent evolution of an asset's price. The aim of the experiment is to confront individuals assumed to be "rational" with "extrapolators" in order to characterize forecasting behavior and to see if the presence of "extrapolators" affects the behavior of "rational" individuals. To do this, we simulated the price of an asset over fifteen periods that fluctuates around its fundamental value. The experiment consists of five treatments. In order to differentiate between the two types of participants, we vary the information available to them to make their price prediction: the so-called "extrapolators" only have access to a window of five previous periods, while the so-called "rational" participants have access to the entire history up to the forecast period. Therefore, we posit two modes of remuneration: one based on the accuracy of the forecasts and the other based on the deviation from the average forecast. Thus, one group of each type of participant will have a different remuneration mode . corresponding to four treatments. Finally, the last group will be composed, in equal proportions, of "extrapolators" and "rationals" and will have an objective of deviation from the average forecast. This will allow us to see if the "rationals" correct their forecast when they are in the presence of "extrapolators". [source: abstract].

Several recent studies have shown that investors in asset markets form their expectations by extrapolating the most recent evolution of an asset's price. The aim of the experiment is to confront individuals assumed to be "rational" with "extrapolators" in order to characterize forecasting behavior and to see if the presence of "extrapolators" affects the behavior of "rational" individuals. To do this, we simulated the price of an asset over fifteen periods that fluctuates around its fundamental value. The experiment consists of five treatments. In order to differentiate between the two types of participants, we vary the information available to them to make their price prediction: the so-called "extrapolators" only have access to a window of five previous periods, while the so-called "rational" participants have access to the entire history up to the forecast period. Therefore, we posit two modes of remuneration: one based on the accuracy of the forecasts and the other based on the deviation from the average forecast. Thus, one group of each type of participant will have a different remuneration mode . corresponding to four treatments. Finally, the last group will be composed, in equal proportions, of "extrapolators" and "rationals" and will have an objective of deviation from the average forecast. This will allow us to see if the "rationals" correct their forecast when they are in the presence of "extrapolators". [source: abstract].

The first chapter examines the long-term statistical characteristics of financial returns in France and the United States. The properties of the different assets show that, in the long run, equities provide a significantly lower risk. Moreover, the mean-reversion properties of equities justify their use in a life-cycle strategy as a "default option" for retirement savings plans. Chapter Two provides an explanation for the debate over the efficient market hypothesis. The cause of the debate is often attributed to small sample sizes and the low power of dedicated statistical tests. In order to circumvent this problem, we use the approach developed by Campbell and Viceira (2005) who use a VAR method to highlight the existence of mean reversion in risky asset prices.The third chapter evaluates the speed of convergence of stock prices. A classic way to characterize the speed of mean reversion is the "half-life". By comparing stock market indexes of four developed countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Japan) over the period 1950-2014, we establish a significant speed of convergence, with a half-life between 4.0 and 5.8 years.The final chapter presents the results of a model designed to study the interactions between demographics and pension plans. In order to study the risks inherent in using capital income to finance pensions, we use a "Trending OR process" instead of a classical MBG to model returns. For a risk-averse investor, the market could compete with pay-as-you-go schemes.

This thesis focuses on three stakeholders in the financing of pension plans: the legislator, the insurer and the individual. In an environment of deviant financial market behavior and unfavorable demographic changes, the role of these stakeholders must be reassessed to meet the challenge of sustainable pension funding. The study of regulation and plan design has been carried out by integrating typical characteristics of the future pension landscape, such as the increasing weight of risk assumed by the individual or the possible participation of stock market investors in the contract offering. The findings provide guidance for managing longevity risk for individuals, an assessment of the attractiveness of longevity risk exposure for investors, contract design information for insurers, and proposals for policymakers on regulatory measures to support a sustainable pension landscape.

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The back cover states: "All money is based on trust. Whether one pays in shells, gold coins, banknotes, credit cards or bitcoins, the seller will only give up his property if he has confidence in the value that the community recognizes in the currency received in exchange. There is no finance without trust: credit is based on the lender's belief in the debtor's ability to repay. Trust is the keystone of the payments system, and no matter how sophisticated modern monetary instruments are, it is based on a hierarchical system of trusted third parties that guarantees the durability of the monetary order. Then came the Internet, that great dynamiter, which shakes up the intermediaries that are supposed to produce trust in the most diverse domains. It is no coincidence that the digital explosion in the world of money and finance is gaining momentum since the legitimacy of institutions - banks, central banks, states - has been weakened by the violence of the financial crisis. But digital networks also allow for new ways of building trust. However, intermediaries have not disappeared and algorithms cannot solve everything. The new forms of digital trust do not abolish the need for institutions, but they do transform their role.

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Despite significant changes in pension systems, including the shift from pay-as-you-go to funded systems, several problems remain. The demographic structure is one of the main factors of systemic risk, threatening the equilibrium of pension funds and favoring instability and poor economic performance. In this thesis, we mobilize empirical and theoretical analysis to provide an investment strategy response to this problem. We first synthesize the existing literature and highlight the importance of intergenerational risk sharing and the differences between individual and collective investments. Using a nested generation model, we study the effects of demographic structure on asset prices. We identify a positive correlation between the inverse of the dependency ratio and asset prices (asset meltdown). Then, using simulated pension contracts, we study the effects of increasing life expectancy and decreasing fertility rates on intergenerational risk sharing. Although the group defined contribution (DC) pension plan better amortizes demographic risks, similar performance can be achieved through individual funding. Moreover, individual funding outperforms the group plan when regulations are highly restrictive. Our results suggest the need for a continuous reform process based on investment strategies. Thus, the effectiveness of fund selection methods such as the false positive rate method seems to be confirmed.

This thesis on office markets is presented in three articles. The first one aims at identifying the persistent and transitory determinants of the evolution of office rents in the Paris region, based on analyses of co-integration properties and structural breaks. The second article examines the interactions between the dynamics of the five sub-markets that make up the Central Paris office market. More precisely, the methodology adopted allows us to define the nature of the interactions in terms of substitutability, complementarity or independence between sub-markets. The third paper contributes to the study of the real estate market from a financial point of view by analyzing the determinants of the rate of return of the UK office market. A non-linear regime-switching model is used to measure the relative impact of these determinants on the rate of return as a function of the monetary and financial environment.

The objective of this thesis is to study the way economists have theorized the relationship between science, technology and economic growth from the 1950s to the present. We identify two approaches to the links between science, technology and growth: a "neoclassical" approach and an "evolutionary" approach. The "neoclassical" approach considers scientific and technological progress as exogenous to economic processes and analyzes growth processes as being subject to constant returns. The "evolutionary" approach, on the other hand, defends an interactionist representation of the links between science and technology, considers technological and scientific progress to be endogenous to economic processes and analyzes growth processes as being subject to increasing returns. We analyze the emergence of these two approaches in the 1950s and 1960s and explain their opposition, with the "neoclassical" approach dominating until the 1980s (Part 1). We then show that the "evolutionary" approach became dominant from the 1980s onwards (Part 2).

This thesis pursues four research objectives, the combination of which is intended to contribute to the understanding of the functioning of the venture capital (VC) market. The first objective is to provide a synthesis of the literature on the exit stage of venture capital. The survey begins by describing the VC funding process by highlighting how the industry operates to manage the information asymmetry between the entrepreneur and the VC investor. The survey also highlights the central position of the exit stage in the VC funding cycle. Indeed, VC firms are managed by professionals who provide capital and expertise to entrepreneurial companies; portfolio companies typically do not pay dividends, and the returns generated by the investment are realized through an exit event, indicating that a profitable exit is at the heart of the venture capital industry. In particular, the survey focuses on the determinants of the exit phase, and examines how the exit choice may vary depending on the goals of the venture capitalist and the entrepreneur. The research question of the first empirical chapter focuses on the competitive effect of venture capital financing in IPOs. Two hypotheses underlie this study. First, if IPO announcements reveal valuable information about the firms being introduced, it is likely that investors in competing firms use this information to reassess the value and prospects of their own firms. Therefore, IPO announcements are likely to have externality effects on rival firms. Second, if venture capitalists are seen as having a role in helping their firms deal with the public market, competitors are likely to react differently to IPOs of VC-backed firms. Accordingly, the following two research questions were formulated: (1) what is the reaction of competitors to the announcement of IPOs? And (2) does the reaction of competitors differ according to the status of the companies issued? Consistent with the literature, the results show that in France, IPOs of companies without VC financing create a negative reaction towards competitors operating in the same sector of activity. This suggests that IPO firms will be able to improve their competitive position. In a different way, the IPO of a company financed by CR has a positive announcement effect on the stock market performance of its competitors. This result suggests that the public market views the IPO of CR-supported firms as a positive signal about the prospects of the market as a whole, from which competitors can also benefit. In fact, this positive relationship suggests that IPOs of VC-backed firms signal positive market conditions. Thus, conferring on venture capitalists a power of foresight, where the venture capitalist will decide to list his company when the stock market valuation is high.

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This thesis focuses on the fundamental determinants of venture capital dynamism. The main objective of our research is to identify the factors that led to the phenomenal development of this activity in the United States and that could explain the delay of Europe in venture capital. Several conclusions can be drawn from this work. On the one hand, the existence of a national financial market dedicated to technology stocks cannot be considered the main factor explaining the comparative advantage of the United States in terms of venture capital. On the other hand, demand and expected performance are the foundations and specificity of US venture capital. Their weakness in European countries may explain the latter's lag. We have also highlighted the importance of the scientific and technological environment for the dynamism of venture capital. On the one hand, this result may explain the lag of European countries, which suffer from insufficient R&D spending. On the other hand, it can explain the success of two venture capital models based on R&D strategy, namely Sweden and Israel.

This thesis studies the relationship between political regime and the development of poor countries. It first shows the importance of wealth distribution in the industrialization process of egalitarian economies that are more likely to adopt industrial technologies. She then looks at the impact of the political regime on industrialization. She shows that the choice of political regime can be linked to development expectations. Egalitarian economies are more likely to become democratic. Finally, she focuses on the interaction between political and economic reforms. She shows that successful economic reforms must be accompanied by a democratization of political institutions. In particular, she contributes to the big bang or gradualism debate.

In this paper, we wish to contribute to the renewal of growth theories initiated by Romer (1986) and Lucas (1988). The main purpose of our thesis is to identify the foundations of the new growth theories and to examine their implications. As far as the foundations are concerned. We try to present a unified approach. As for the implications, the focus is on the place assigned to primary factors, the evaluation of public education policies in a growth context, and finally the articulation between the short and long term. This last theme is in line with certain concerns of macroeconomists regarding the persistence of cyclical shocks on macroeconomic dynamics. Finally, the limits to growth arising from the existence of scarce non-renewable resources are examined. Although not directly part of the renewal enterprise undertaken by the dominant literature, this aspect cannot be neglected because of its fundamental implications.