PENASSE Julien

This thesis studies several aspects of the dynamics of asset returns. The first three chapters focus on price formation in the art market. The first chapter establishes that prices can temporarily, and partially predictably, deviate from fundamental value. This article was published in Economics Letters (Volume 122, Issue 3, pp. 432-434) and was written with Christophe Spaenjers and Luc Renneboog. Chapter 2 studies the speed of information transmission in aggregate art market prices. Chapter 3 analyzes the correlation between price and volume and supports evidence consistent with a bubble hypothesis. It was written with Luc Renneboog. Chapter 4 focuses on empirical modeling of the predictability of stock market indices in fifteen industrialized countries. It proposes to combine the information given by each country in order to improve the predictive power.

The doctoral thesis studies several aspects of asset returns dynamics. The first three chapters focus on returns in the fine art market. The first chapter provides evidence for the existence of a slow-moving fad component in art prices that induces short-term return predictability. The article has been published in Economics Letters (Volume 122, Issue 3, pp. 432-434), and was written together with Christophe Spaenjers and Luc Renneboog. Chapter 2 investigates how fast is information incorporated into aggregate art prices. Chapter 3 studies price-volume dynamics in the art market and documents evidence of bubble patterns in prices and is written with Luc Renneboog. Chapter 4 proposes a Bayesian estimation procedure that makes efficient use of cross-sectional information, and revisits the return predictability literature.

We hypothesize the existence of a slow-moving fad component in art prices. Using unique panel survey data on art market participants' confidence levels in the outlook for a set of artists, we find that sentiment indeed predicts short-term returns.