COUPPEY SOUBEYRAN Jezabel

Zoé lives with her mother who is unemployed. This smart and determined 12-year-old schoolgirl wants to help her find a job. But how to go about it? This is the starting point that will lead Zoé to ask herself the right questions, thanks in particular to Mrs. Robinson, her retired economics teacher neighbor, and her friends, about all the themes that govern the economic world today: Work - Unemployment - Globalization - Banking - Technical progress - Inequality - Parity - Pensions - Basic income - Ecology - Money - Finance - Europe - Brexit. A lively story to allow children (10-15 years old) to approach with clarity the major topics of the economy.

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Each year, CEPII publishes in its "Repères" collection unpublished analyses of major global economic issues. The world economy is slowing down in the shadow of acute trade and geopolitical tensions, while international coordination is in tatters. Beyond Donald Trump's protectionism, we are witnessing a systemic trade crisis. Distrust of trade agreements is growing: but how do we evaluate them? This context is particularly unfavorable to international cooperation to save the climate. Yet the urgency is there. Will we act before it is too late? Ten years after the financial crisis of 2007-2008, financial fragility persists: what are the causes and can we counter them? Monetary policies remain very accommodating. Will central banks ever manage to normalize them? How can their objectives and instruments be reinvented? A final chapter this year deals with Turkey and the economic and political turmoil into which it is plunging. The statistical supplements place the recent data in a long-term perspective.

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In an economic environment still weakened by the Great Recession, SMEs appear to be a key driver of activity and employment. In this thesis, I examine the determinants and consequences of SMEs' financial constraints afin order to identify the forms of bank financing best suited to their situations. The first chapter analyzes the effects of banking business models on SME financing and shows that trading banks increase short-term credit constraints as well as financing costs. More importantly, the negative externality of trading on the availability of short-term credit is even stronger for highly capitalized banks that are dependent on derivatives. The second chapter focuses on the beneficial effet of the banking relationship for SMEs. We show that relationship lenders charge higher rates during growth periods and lower rates during crisis periods. However, by including single-banked firms in our analysis, we find that this insurance mechanism depends on firms' ability to diversify their borrowing from multiple banks. Infin, the third chapter focuses on the actual effects of financial constraints. My results highlight the crucial importance of short-term financing for SME investment through the working capital channel. Firms that have investment opportunities cannot seize them because cash credit constraints force them to allocate more cash flow to financing working capital.

The three chapters of this thesis aim to contribute to a better understanding of how unconventional policies affect asset prices. They also empirically revisit the question of the impact of supply on asset prices, and more generally the limits imposed on arbitrage, the frictions in portfolio reallocation. Each chapter presents new data to quantify the mechanisms at work in the case of the Eurosystem's asset purchase program (APP). Chapter 1 proposes a simple portfolio model to think about unconventional measures in a coherent framework. Empirical exercises confirm the existence of several price transmission channels and assess the impact of the APP. Chapter 2 sheds new light on the portfolio rebalancing channel. The high frictions associated with reallocation, the high demand for "preferred habitat" and the low level of substitutability between assets allow for price impact, while possibly limiting spillovers to the economy. Chapter 3 suggests that the effet of securities purchases also if not primarily involves increasing the cost of borrowing these securities, which has implications for the dispersion of short-term money market rates and could make it difficult in the future to transmit conventional monetary policy if rates once considered risk-free and controllable by the central bank could not be controlled as precisely as before.

Finance education seems to have been little influenced by the great fi-nancial crisis of 2007-2008. This is the result of a questionnaire survey conducted by the Veblen Institute and four female finance teachers during 2018. Only 25% of the teachers surveyed believe that teaching has changed so significantly since the crisis. This inertia can be explained in part by the dominance of a few "reference" textbooks that focus largely on the mathematical and technical aspects of the finance profession, and more often than not neglect the issue of the impact of finance on society. The most cited textbooks do not really focus on the macroeconomic impact of finance, even though this impact is the major factor in the economic transformations that have taken place since the 1980s. This note analyzes the results of the questionnaire conducted between May and June 2018, and the authors propose several avenues for reforming the teaching. The full set of data from the survey is available on the Veblen Institute website.

Finance education seems to have been little influenced by the great financial crisis of 2007-2008. This is the result of a questionnaire survey conducted by the Veblen Institute during 2018. Only 25% of the teachers surveyed believe that teaching has changed significantly since the crisis. This inertia can be explained in part by the dominance of a few "reference" textbooks that focus largely on the mathematical and technical aspects of the finance profession, often neglecting the issue of the impact of finance on society. The most cited textbooks do not really focus on the macroeconomic impact of finance, even though this impact is the major factor in the economic transformations that have been taking place since the 1980s. This note analyzes the results of the questionnaire conducted between May and June 2018, and the authors propose several avenues for reforming the teaching. The full set of data from the survey is available on the Veblen Institute website.

Following the crisis of 2007-2008, the banking and financial sector came under fire. Reforms have been undertaken to strengthen the rules and supervision of banks. Much remains to be done, while a possible backtracking is already threatening. The public debate on these issues is made difficult by the technical nature of the subject. How do banks operate? How do they manage risks? Who controls them? To get out of the media brouhaha, "Entrez dans l'actu" brings you objective and factual information on banks and their sector.

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The two editors of "The World Economy 2019" reveal the main cyclical developments in the world economy, as well as the more structural problems that arise (imbalances in the euro zone, the downward trend in inflation, the rise of inequality, the increasing power of the MNCs...). These structural changes can be properly understood only if the usual theoretical frameworks of macroeconomics are renewed and appropriate measurement tools are developed.

Ten years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the dramatic fall of 2008 when the global banking and financial system was truly on the brink of collapse, the time has come to take stock of the reforms undertaken. This is the purpose of this report. In the background of this work, crucial questions arise for public authorities: are our economies now immune to the risks of a major financial crisis? Have the lessons of the crisis been learned in the structuring of financial and banking regulation instruments? Have the very ambitious announcements made at the G20 summits in Washington DC in 2008 and in London and Pittsburgh in 2009 been followed up? In order to answer these questions as well as possible, we present in the first part an overview of post-crisis banking regulations. This involves presenting in detail the reforms undertaken in terms of bank capitalization and liquidity ratios (Basel III), resolution mechanisms (in particular bail-in), but also the reform of market infrastructures (clearing houses). For each of them, we draw up a balanced assessment highlighting the progress they represent relative to the pre-crisis period, but also their shortcomings. A more global critique of the inspiration and philosophy of these regulatory changes deserves to be stated. In the second part of this report, we question the very philosophy of prudential regulations.

This research work is devoted to studying the stability of the long-run equilibrium associated with a liquidity trap, investigating the consequences of one of the unconventional monetary policies implemented since the Great Recession, and the possibility of using a feature of the monetary policy operating framework as an additional tool that would allow central banks to implement a policy that strengthens the real economy while simultaneously addressing any concerns about increased risk-taking in the economy due to low interest rates.

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The euro zone suffers from economic and financial divergences between its members. Monetary policy cannot remedy this, since it is a single policy, calibrated and implemented for the average member of the zone. It can even increase them by acting alone, without any other economic policy lever to complement it. This makes a new policy mix in the eurozone urgent, taking into account the fact that the zone is heterogeneous and subject to financial cycles that are not very synchronous. Seeking economic stability through financial stability is possible within the framework of macroprudential policy, whose countercyclical action can be calibrated by country, while being coordinated at the level of the zone by an institution already in place, the European Systemic Risk Council. The euro zone would thus have the macroeconomic adjustment instrument that it has lacked since its inception.

Each year, the CEPII publishes in its "Repères" collection unpublished analyses of major global economic issues. The statistical supplements place recent data in a long-term perspective. An essential reference. Each year, CEPII publishes in its "Repères" collection unpublished analyses of major global economic issues. This 2017 edition focuses on rising tensions and coordination failures in the global economy. While the controversies surrounding globalization are growing, history teaches us that the phenomenon is not irreversible. What kind of globalization for tomorrow? Will the lack of coordination in the international monetary system cause financial globalization to recede and national sovereignty to re-emerge? Vulnerabilities also persist in the banking sector. Have the reforms undertaken gone far enough? More optimistic about the progress made at COP21, this edition highlights the transformations that could occur if the financial sector were put at the service of climate risk management. But tensions are resurfacing with migration and the refugee crisis, which confront the European Union with its major lack of coordination. In Brazil, internal tensions have plunged the country into a deep crisis. Statistical data completes this analysis of the global economy.

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The back cover states: "Why do our economies face ever more frequent and violent crises? Why do a series of speculative bubbles form and then burst, with disastrous economic and social consequences? For Hyman Minsky, who has studied these questions all his life, the answer is straightforward: our economic system is intrinsically unstable. The very dynamics of the system create crises, and it is in the calmest and most prosperous times that crises are brewing. Against the tide of his era, the 1980s, the American economist was little heard during his lifetime. It was not until the subprime crisis that his work was picked up by the international press. In this essential book, by returning to the great macroeconomics and a rigorous interpretation of Keynes, Minsky helps us understand the causes of this instability, but also how to remedy it while regaining full employment.

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The experience of the euro area over the last decade has shown that a single monetary policy does not necessarily promote convergence of the economies belonging to a monetary union. The objective of this article is threefold. First, we seek to illustrate the divergences between the countries of the zone based on the gap between the policy rate of the single monetary policy and the rate that would have resulted from the application of a standard Taylor rule, which we calculate at several levels: the zone, the "core", the "periphery", and certain countries taken individually, representative of the core or the periphery of the zone. Second, we show that a monetary policy that would use a Taylor rule extended to financial stability to correct the resulting financial imbalances would risk further reinforcing divergences. Finally, we conclude that the euro area would benefit from a new policy mix that would combine monetary policy with macroprudential measures adjusted to the economic and financial situation of each member state. This combination would promote not only financial stability but also macroeconomic stability.

The negative nominal rates currently enjoyed by some sovereign borrowers, as well as by banks refinancing with central banks that have opted for negative policy rates, have shattered the assumption of a zero floor. Although they extend the room for manoeuvre for monetary policy, are negative rates a deliberate and controlled consequence of crisis management monetary policy or, rather, a symptom of deflation, an indicator of the seriousness of the macroeconomic situation, or even the harbinger of a phenomenon of secular stagnation? Doesn't the recovery depend less on the nominal monetary rate than on the rate of return on productive investment, i.e. the natural rate in Wicksell's sense? This return to the Wicksellian approach to the natural rate of interest leads us to ask whether, in order to ward off the persistent risk of deflation and to postpone the prospect of secular stagnation, it is the monetary rate that we must push ever lower or the natural rate that we must try to raise. In which case, how can the natural rate be raised?

The objective of this thesis, composed of four empirical and theoretical papers, is to study the involvement of central banks in financial stability - defined as a stable and high state of confidence in the ability of the financial system to facilitate the allocation of economic resources, manage risks, and withstand shocks - and to discuss their new macroprudential responsibilities. The global financial crisis has shifted financial regulation and supervision from a microprudential perspective based on the resilience of individual institutions to a macroprudential perspective that takes into account the interactions between financial institutions, the externalities associated with their decisions, and also the effects of the financial cycle on the economic cycle and on financial stability. This thesis analyzes the policy mix of monetary - targeting the business cycle - and macroprudential - targeting the financial cycle - both of which have an impact on price stability and financial conditions. Indeed, these policies operate through transmission channels, some of which are common. Particular attention is paid, beyond macroprudential policy in a heterogeneous monetary union such as the euro area - where countries experience differentiated macroeconomic conditions - in terms of financial and macroeconomic stabilization. Starting from the observation that a single interest rate is adapted to the average of the zone but not to the needs of each country, macroprudential policy could compensate for the absence of an autonomous monetary policy in each country. This would improve the degree of optimality of the monetary zone.

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The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 revealed the fragility of modern banks as well as regulatory shortcomings. In the wake of the crisis, the banking sector has undergone significant regulatory reforms: strengthening of micro-prudential regulation, implementation of schemes with macro-prudential objectives, and various initiatives to separate activities. In this context, this thesis, using US data, first attempts to explain the vulnerability of banks by their financial characteristics and organizational structure. Then, the thesis proposes an analysis of the effectiveness of some new tools in the context of reforms. We find the following results: 1) The risk of failure is higher for banks that adopt aggressive strategies during the economic boom and finance themselves with unstable funds. A healthy (well-capitalized and profitable) parent company is a source of strength for bank subsidiaries. This supports the introduction of the countercyclical capital buffer and the liquidity ratio in Basel III. 2) Diversification of activities contributes to the decrease of bank risk, while increasing commitments in volatile non-traditional activities seems to make banks more vulnerable. This supports the need for structural reform for some universal banks. 3) Leverage ratios predict the probability of failure of large banks better than the risk-weighted ratio, while both types of ratios are equally effective in predicting the failure of small banks. This result underscores the importance of strengthening the regulation of systemic banks and implies its implementation.

In economics, there is nothing more essential, but also more mysterious, than money. How can we define it? What are its different forms? Who creates it? Who controls it? This article will answer the questions you may have about money, while studying the transformations underway since the subprime crisis. Why has the massive injection of liquidity by central banks since 2008 not resulted in additional credit being granted by banks or in an inflationary surge?

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We conduct a meta-analysis of twenty-three DSGE models that have all the characteristics that allow us to observe how monetary policy and macroprudential policy (MPP) are combined. These models have in common that they incorporate macroprudential instruments to limit financial fluctuations and that they represent monetary policy by means of a Taylor rule that can make the interest rate respond to the inflation gap, the output gap and a financial gap. Taking the value of the financial gap response coefficient in the Taylor rule as the hinge of the policy mix between monetary policy and MPP, we make it our dependent variable. The relationship we test depends mainly on the type of macroprudential instruments chosen, the relative importance given to inflation and the output gap in the Taylor rule, and the way in which the response coefficients in the Taylor rule are obtained (by optimization/estimation or by calibration). Our results suggest that the type of macroprudential instruments chosen has a significant influence on the degree of linkage between monetary policy and the MPC, and that the more importance the monetary policy rule gives to inflation, the less strong the linkage.

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Based on the limits of econometrics highlighted in the debates on monetary policy since the 1960s, this thesis aims to show the primacy of theory over empirics and that econometrics cannot be decisive in challenging theory. We adopt an approach based on epistemological arguments to show that these debates go beyond the theory/empiry divide and include a difference of vision as to the usefulness of an empirical model. The research program of the Cowles Commission was built around a particular articulation of three fundamental elements. A theoretical frame of reference derived from Keynes's General Theory, a formal model based on the relative consensus around the IS-LM scheme and econometric techniques for estimating the parameters of this model. It is the nature and degree of interdependence between the above three elements that are questioned by monetarists and VAR modellers. While Keynesians make a clear distinction between the theoretical model and the estimated model, for monetarists this distinction is not clear and does not seem relevant. Sims (1980) criticizes the Cowles Commission's structural models for containing too many theoretical assumptions that have not been empirically tested. He suggests that the exogeneity assumptions be subjected to direct and precise econometric tests. However, the empirical indeterminacy of causality in a VAR model, linked to the problem of observational equivalence (Basmann, 1965), imposes the adoption of an identification scheme based on theoretical a priori to identify monetary policy shocks. This is an extreme case of the problem of the underdetermination of theory by data raised by the Duhem-Quine thesis (Duhem, 1906, Quine, 1951). In addition, Hoover (2009) notes that the analysis of impulse responses in a VAR provides a good example of what Cartwright (2007) refers to as the ''imposter counterfactual.'' The development of Error Correction Models and cointegrated VAR models has allowed for a renewed analysis of monetarist propositions. However, the links between cointegration proposals and the notions of long-run equilibrium and short-run disequilibrium are rarely interpreted within the framework of a rigorous and fully specified theoretical model. For Faust and Leeper (1994), identifying a model by imposing constraints may not be fruitful when economic theory does not clearly distinguish between short- and long-run dynamics. Faust and Whiteman (1997) note the absence of an arbitration criterion in these approaches when there is a conflict between the theoretical principle and the fit to the data, if not a subordination of the theory to econometrics. Alongside the problem of identification, Lucas's (1976) critique constitutes the second fundamental criticism of econometric models. Lucas (1980, 1986) adopts a new epistemological stance by considering the theoretical model as a "fiction" and no longer as a set of propositions about the behaviour of a real economy. He defends the idea of explaining the cycle in terms of the discipline of equilibrium (Lucas, 1977). The DSGE models, which constitute the basic models of the New Synthesis, are strongly influenced by Lucasian methodology and are in line with the RBC models (Taouil, 2011). Benati and Surico (2009) established the superiority of DSGEs over structural VARs (SVARs). This failure of SVARs is a direct consequence of the inter-equation restrictions imposed by the rational expectations assumption, as initially raised by the critique of Sargent (1979).

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In response to the crisis, financial reforms are underway to subject banks to enhanced prudential requirements. Under the Basel III accords, banks will have to hold more and better capital, and will also have to ensure the stability of their resources and the liquidity of their assets. Insurance companies, another important player in the financing of the economy, will also have to comply with increased capital requirements (Solvency II). These reforms, which are essential for strengthening the stability of financial systems, will require adjustment efforts on the part of financial institutions and will likely have an impact on the financing of economies. Will they make it more difficult, rarer or more expensive? Should we fear a disintermediation of financing and a transfer of risks that banks and insurance companies will no longer be able to take to savers who are much less inclined in Europe than in the United States to make long and risky investments? Or will the risks be transferred to other less supervised actors, in which case the shadow banking that the regulator is trying to reduce would, on the contrary, increase? These are the questions that this report aims to answer. [4th cover].

The back cover states: "At a time when banks and finance are being called into question, it is useful to recall what the role of banks and financial markets is (or should be). Is finance still at the service of the real economy? Some financial innovations have proven to be dangerous for financial stability. What are the sources of financial instability? Are bubbles inevitable? Why did banks take excessive risks? How have central banks acted during the crisis since 2007-2008? Have the lessons of the financial crisis, which has become a global economic crisis, been learned? Will the current reforms succeed in improving bank supervision and market organization, as well as in containing shadow banking? On all these topics, and many others, this book offers the keys to move from theory to the most current applications. It is primarily intended for Master's students in economics or management and for those in the grandes écoles, but it is also of interest to a much wider public wishing to better interpret monetary, banking and financial developments.

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This paper provides a snapshot of the current state of central banking doctrine in the aftermath of the crisis, using data from a questionnaire produced in 2011 and sent to central bankers (from 13 countries plus the euro zone) and economists (31) for a report by the French Council of Economic Analysis to the Prime Minister. The results of our analysis of the replies to the questionnaire are twofold. First, we show that the financial crisis has led to some amendments of pre-crisis central banking. We highlight that respondents to the questionnaire agree on the general principle of a 'broader' view of central banking extended to financial stability. Nevertheless, central bankers and economists diverge or give inconsistent answers about the details of implementation of this 'broader' view. Therefore, the devil is once again in the details. We point out that because of central bankers' conservatism, a return to the status quo cannot be excluded.

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This thesis consists of three articles that are part of a single problematic on the interrelations between the financial and real sectors in South Korea. Our empirical analysis verified the proper functioning of some components of the transmission mechanism between the financial and real sectors. First, we found that the bank credit channel functioned as one of the transmission channels of monetary policy (Chapter 1). Second, we empirically verified that bank capitalization is an important factor in the transmission of monetary policy shocks (Chapter2). Finally, our analysis of the interaction between house prices and bank lending showed that there is a long-run relationship between house prices and bank lending (Chapter 3). As verified empirically in our analysis, the financial sector and the real sector are closely related through the financial or real shock. The results highlight the following points about monetary and supervisory policies. First, it is important for monetary policy to take into account capital regulation and its effect on the economy. Second, taking into account the fact that mortgage lending is very closely related to economic conditions in Korea, the instrument of macroprudential policy to reduce procyclicality is necessary. The central bank and the prudential authority can work together to develop these instruments.

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Using a database of more than 1,300 firms from six countries in the MENA region, we study the impact of financial development on the relationship between trade credit on the one hand and bank credit access and firm-level characteristics, especially financial health, on the other hand. Trade credit use increases with the difficulty for gaining access to bank credit, and indicators of the quality of the firm's financial structure negatively influence the use of trade credit. Additional investigations tend to suggest that increased financial development significantly reduces the substitution relationship between trade credit and bank credit, and more generally decreases the influence of most firm-level determinants for trade credit usage. These results are plausibly explained by a demand-driven story: when bank credit access gets increasingly difficult, or when financial health deteriorates, the demand for trade credit increases. Similarly, when financial development increases, firms have better access to bank credit, and impact of this variable (or financial health proxies) on the demand for trade credit becomes less or not significant.

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In a period of financial fragility that some compare to that of the 1930s, this thesis, devoted to the effectiveness of prudential regulation of banks, aims to shed light on the opportunity, the stakes and the possible direction of a reform of the latter. Our reflection, although focused on regulation, is necessarily supported by that carried out on intermediation. Moreover, we take a microeconomic approach that borrows essentially from industrial economics and information economics. This thesis is organized in four parts. The first part is based on a review of the literature devoted to banking economics and proposes to renew the study of the reasons for regulation. We insist on the fundamental complementarity of the different modes of regulation of the banking activity (internal control, market discipline, regulation). We also emphasize the acuteness of agency problems, both at the level of the theoretical analysis of banking and its regulation, and at the level of the analysis of current banking difficulties, insofar as the problems of productive inefficiency appear minor in our application of the DEA. The second part is a state of the art of the practice and theory of banking regulation. The third part extends the reflection to the evolution of intermediation and its impact on the efficiency of prudential regulation: the traditional institutional anchoring of regulation is questioned. The rise of bancassurance, which we model, provides a good illustration of the current institutional evolution of financial systems that challenges the regulator. The fourth part intends to contribute to the debate on the opportunity of regulatory reform. Our reform proposal is based on the implementation of a flexible regulation whose properties are studied in a self-selection model. In the form of a simple self-reporting regulation, it would be integrated with other modes of regulation in a dynamic scheme. As part of a global prudential system, free of institutional partitions, it would also allow for an effective supervision of financial conglomerates.