JOUVET Pierre Andre

No summary available.

No summary available.

We introduce a pollution permits market in a two-sector oligopoly equilibrium model. In this model, one commodity is inelastically supplied by one competitive trader and another one is produced by a finite set of oligopolists, using the first commodity as an input. The production of the second commodity is a polluting activity. Introducing a competitive emission permits market solves the pollution control problem but does not alleviate market distortions. We provide some conditions under which giving a supply subsidy to the oligopolists that is financed by a tax on the competitive agent is welfare increasing.

Extractive and agricultural resources do not have the same impact on poverty reduction and can compete with each other. We examine how extractive resource windfalls affect agricultural productivity, measured as the amount of output per worker in the agricultural sector. This is important since agricultural productivity is a key element of structural transformation and poverty reduction. To do this, we exploit a panel dataset of 38 countries over 1991-2016 and construct a country-specific commodity price index that captures resource-related gains and losses in aggregate disposable income. We find that an increase in the commodity price index leads to a drop in agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan economies. Among the possible mechanisms to explain this result, our findings highlight the lack of spillovers across sectors and the low level of agricultural investment in autocratic regimes, both related to the exploitation of extractive resources. We also find that higher agricultural productivity is positively associated with the release of workers towards manufacturing and services, confirming its importance for structural transformation.

Extractive and agricultural resources do not have the same impact on poverty reduction and can compete with each other. We examine how extractive resource windfalls affect agricultural productivity, measured as the amount of output per worker in the agricultural sector. This is important since agricultural productivity is a key element of structural transformation and poverty reduction. To do this, we exploit a panel dataset of 38 countries over 1991-2016 and construct a country-specific commodity price index that captures resource-related gains and losses in aggregate disposable income. We find that an increase in the commodity price index leads to a drop in agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan economies. Among the possible mechanisms to explain this result, our findings highlight the lack of spillovers across sectors and the low level of agricultural investment in autocratic regimes, both related to the exploitation of extractive resources. We also find that higher agricultural productivity is positively associated with the release of workers towards manufacturing and services, confirming its importance for structural transformation.

We propose a nested-generation model in which firms' polluting emissions are regulated by a system of pollution permits. The global emission quota is imposed on the economy and is accompanied by political constraints on its use. In this context, the question arises whether pollution regulation by permits and the achievement of the first-order optimum are compatible. We show that when policy is constrained, it is possible to establish the optimality of the equilibrium thanks to a policy of redistribution of the environmental rent and a policy of price discrimination of the participants (firms and households) on the permit market.

The European carbon market (ETS) is the cornerstone of European climate policy. However, carbon prices have long been considered too low and volatile to trigger the investments needed for a sustainable decarbonization of the economy. Low price levels have largely been attributed to an imbalance in the supply of permits due to external shocks to the market. Several supply restriction measures, criticized in the first chapter, were thus undertaken in order to preserve the ETS. However, most prospective analyses of the EU ETS are based on an archetypal model of permit trading, which does not take into account the internal structure of the market or its fundamentals. This thesis thus aims to identify the structural determinants of the carbon price on the EU ETS, as well as to assess its impact on market equilibrium and supply-side policy design. Motivated by the examination of microeconomic transaction and emission data, the second and third chapters conduct an ex-post analysis of Phases 2 (2008-2012) and 3 (2013-2020) of the mechanism. They highlight the unstable nature of the internal market structure. In particular, transaction costs alter the spatial flexibility of the EU ETS, while technological progress destabilizes the emission cap. These observations lead us to question the interest of a carbon price floor to remedy these instabilities. A fourth chapter therefore conducts an ex-ante analysis of the ETS electricity sector in the presence of three price support mechanisms. Our results suggest that the ability of the RMS to rapidly reduce the number of permits in circulation does not justify such a mechanism in the short term.

My thesis work focused on the study of equivocal interactions between the economic and environmental spheres. A two-way relationship between economic development and the evolution of environmental quality over time has been highlighted through the health of individuals. To do so, I have mobilized nested-generation models that are particularly well suited to describe the dynamic evolution of environmental quality and wealth accumulation when intergenerational externalities appear. The following articles dealt with economic policy, its forms and consequences, in a framework where the health of individuals is determined by environmental conditions. In the continuity of the previous works, the tools used and the approach remain identical. We describe the causal relationships between environmental, health and economic variables and the expected effects of the policies implemented. In response to clearly identified objectives, economic policy recommendations are formulated. The main conclusions of this last work led me to pay more attention to the notion of vulnerability to pollution and to decision making in a context characterized by strong uncertainties. Using new tools borrowed from decision theory in an uncertain world and from welfare economics, I have since focused my research on the foundations of the public decision-making process as well as on the ethical criteria that are adopted when faced with an imperfectly known random exposure to environmental risk.

This article builds a bridge between the endogenous economic growth theory, the biophysical economics perspective, and the past and future transitions between renewable and nonrenewable energy forms that economies have had to and will have to accomplish. We provide an endogenous economic growth model subject to the physical limits of the real world, meaning that nonrenewable and renewable energy production costs have functional forms that respect physical constraints, and that technological level is precisely defned as the effciency of primary-to-useful exergy conversion. The model supports the evidence that historical productions of renewable and nonrenewable energy have greatly infuenced past economic growth. Indeed, from an initial almost-renewable-only supply regime we reproduce the increasing reliance on nonrenewable energy that has allowed the global economy to leave the state of economic stagnation that had characterized the largest part of its history. We then study the inevitable transition towards complete renewable energy that human will have to deal with in a not-too-far future since nonrenewable energy comes by defnition from a fnite stock. Through simulation we study in which circumstances this transition could have negative impacts on economic growth (peak followed by degrowth phase). We show that the implementation of a carbon price can partially smooth such unfortunate dynamics, depending on the ways of use of the income generated by the carbon pricing.

This article builds a bridge between the endogenous economic growth theory, the biophysical economics perspective, and the past and future transitions between renewable and nonrenewable energy forms that economies have had to and will have to accomplish. We provide an endogenous economic growth model subject to the physical limits of the real world, meaning that nonrenewable and renewable energy production costs have functional forms that respect physical constraints, and that technological level is precisely defned as the effciency of primary-to-useful exergy conversion. The model supports the evidence that historical productions of renewable and nonrenewable energy have greatly infuenced past economic growth. Indeed, from an initial almost-renewable-only supply regime we reproduce the increasing reliance on nonrenewable energy that has allowed the global economy to leave the state of economic stagnation that had characterized the largest part of its history. We then study the inevitable transition towards complete renewable energy that human will have to deal with in a not-too-far future since nonrenewable energy comes by defnition from a fnite stock. Through simulation we study in which circumstances this transition could have negative impacts on economic growth (peak followed by degrowth phase). We show that the implementation of a carbon price can partially smooth such unfortunate dynamics, depending on the ways of use of the income generated by the carbon pricing.

This article build a bridge between the endogenous economic growth theory, the biophysical economics perspective, and the past and future transitions between renewable and nonrenewable energy forms that economies have had to and will have to accomplish. We provide an endogenous economic growth model subject to the physical limits of the real world, meaning that nonrenewable and renewable energy production costs have functional forms that respect physical constraints, and that technological level is precisely defined as the efficiency of primary-to-useful exergy conversion. The model supports the evidence that historical productions of renewable and nonrenewable energy have greatly influenced past economic growth. Indeed, from an initial almost-renewable-only supply regime we reproduce the increasing reliance on nonrenewable energy that has allowed the global economy to leave the state of economic stagnation that had characterized the largest part of its history. We then study the inevitable transition towards complete renewable energy that human will have to deal with in a not-too-far future since nonrenewable energy comes by definition from a finite stock. Through simulation we study in which circumstances this transition could have negative impacts on economic growth (peak followed by degrowth phase). We show that the implementation of a carbon price can partially smooth such unfortunate dynamics, depending on the ways of use of the income generated by the carbon pricing.

Since the end of the Second World War, the world has been on a growth path that has doubled per capita gross domestic product every 25 years. Since 1973, growth has been redeployed, starting with the rise of the emerging economies to correct the secular polarization of wealth in the Western countries and Japan. Fears that the wall of scarcity of raw materials would block the process have been thwarted. Demographics and the expansion of growth, on the other hand, threaten to alter major regulatory functions such as climate stability, the maintenance of biological diversity and the water cycle. Green growth consists in transforming the production and consumption processes to preserve or reconstitute these regulatory functions of natural capital.

At a time when people are becoming aware of the finitude of resources and the growing need for energy, the notion of sustainable development must take a central place in the evolution of society. To achieve this goal, it is now recognized that a profound change in consumption is necessary, whether it is energy consumption, food or finished products. We believe that this change of paradigm is only possible if all the actors move forward together on the different issues we are facing. Each one at its own level must be able to make the decisions that are necessary for all. This is the logic behind the exergo-graphy tool presented in chapter 3. In the tradition of Sankey diagrams, it allows exergy balances to be represented in graphic form in order to communicate the lessons more easily. We apply it to two cases of analyses carried out on the heating and DHW production installations of building A of the UPN. For each, we study the possibility of a sustainable heat production solution (geothermal heat pump and solar thermal). After having presented the analyses, we draw up the graphical representations which we compare with those of the current system. Beforehand, Chapter 1 introduces the basic concepts of exergy analysis, which are further developed in Chapter 2, through a modeling of static and dynamic fluid systems. Finally, in chapter 4, we introduce a toy model which, proposing a fractal representation of heat, tries to establish a conceptual link between the microscopic, statistical behavior of the heat carrier, and the macroscopic observables which characterize it.

No summary available.

This thesis focuses on the energy consumption of the commercial tertiary sector in France. Our approach is empirical, and is based on the Survey on Energy Consumption in the Tertiary Sector (ECET). Based on a review of the literature devoted to the econometric study of the determinants of energy consumption in buildings (residential or tertiary), we highlight the coexistence of two estimation methods, to which we return. We also expose the consensus or debates on the effects of the studied determinants. Since the data used in this thesis are derived from a survey with a complex sampling design, we present the statistical tools adapted to the exploitation of data from this type of sampling, and then we analyze the controversy that continues to exist on the estimation of econometric models on survey data. We then mobilize our database to provide a first statistical description of energy consumption in the commercial tertiary sector in France. This statistical description is based on a nomenclature that we construct in order to obtain information at the infra-sectoral level. Finally, we use all the methods and approaches previously identified to study the determinants of energy demand in the tertiary sector on the basis of an econometric analysis of the ECET data. This leads us to a double reading of our results, both as elements of answer to the question of the impact of the variables studied on the energy demand of establishments, and as elements of comparison of the different methods.

This thesis deals with cooperation and climate governance in the post-Copenhagen era. Its objective is to characterize the evolution of the climate regime, based on the positions of the European Union, China and the United States, which can be designated as large emitters, major economies and great powers. Two determinants are considered structuring for this analysis: the costs of mitigation and the costs of adaptation. The starting point of our thesis is the polarized evolution of the climate regime. The most significant fact of this "metamorphosis" is the shift, in 2009, from a top-down to a bottom-up approach.To do so, we mobilize a hybrid theoretical framework, which includes International Political Economy and the Economics of Climate Change. The combined contribution of these two approaches allows us to analyze international climate policy through environmental economics and conversely, to inform the impact that these relationships can have on economic logic. We propose a specific approach to cooperation based on Duncan Snidal's (1985) "k-group" theory.Within this minilateral cooperative framework, the thesis we argue is that it is possible to have a k-group for climate and that it can have a beneficial effect on climate regime development. We argue that this group can be considered a "club of the relevant" and that, in order to form a k-group, it is necessary for countries to form a "coalition of the willing". What structures the capacity and willingness to act are primarily the costs involved, both mitigation and adaptation costs. At the same time, the commitment of this group is based on conditioning. The incentive device is the idea of increasingly broad cooperation, which mitigates the free rider problem.The research results are appreciated in light of the outcome of COP 21. If the k-group works, it is because the three countries decide to move forward and agree to shoulder greater mitigation costs than other countries. This collective commitment would trigger a virtuous movement that would impose shared leadership on the climate regime among these three countries, paving the way for the others. If the k-group does not work, it is because our actors consider the short-term costs too high in relation to their own interests and in relation to the risk of free riding by other states. Given the economic situation in which our three actors find themselves, this scenario appears to be probable.Finally, in our model of the analysis of cooperation, we favor the Europe-China tandem. We show that this tripartite cooperation should be built from this pair, since, unlike the United States, it is Europe that appears to be more willing. China, the key player in the climate field, which is likely to suffer the full consequences of climate change, has more interest in joining Europe if it wishes to obtain an agreement that is not based solely on minimum (national) contributions.

The purpose of this thesis is to study the role of energy in long-term economic growth. Chapter 1 describes the four main facts of growth: the transition from stagnation to sustainability, the Great Divergence, the interdependence between energy consumption and technical progress, and the dynamics in nested and hierarchical cycles. The various remote causes of growth (biogeography, culture, institutions and contingency) are then studied. Chapter 2 presents the theories involving so-called proximate causes, such as technical progress and the accumulation of physical and human capital. The unified growth theory (UGT) is also analyzed. Chapter 3 presents the fundamental laws of thermodynamics and the associated concepts of exergy and entropy. It is then shown that only the consumption of exergy services is a fundamental cause of growth. In chapter 4, it is established that world oil and gas production (but not coal) has already exceeded its maximum energy rate of return (EROI), so that future conventional production will be with a decreasing EROI. Chapter 5 shows that the higher metal requirements of renewable technologies could be a constraint to the successful feasibility of the energy transition. Chapter 6 shows that the net energy constraint materializes in the short term through the energy expenditure (share of the economic product consumed to obtain energy). Chapter 7 presents a theoretical model of endogenous growth integrating the biophysical approach.

Innovation in low-carbon energy technologies is hampered, on the one hand, by environmental externalities and, on the other, by knowledge externalities. These market failures need to be corrected by government intervention. The objective of this thesis is to establish the conditions for an efficient support to innovation in low-carbon energy technologies. The research work conducts theoretical analyses on the treatment of these market failures in conjunction with empirical evaluations of the policies to support innovation in these technologies that have been implemented so far. This thesis is structured in five chapters. Chapter 1 questions the need for policies specifically dedicated to innovation in low-carbon energy technologies, as opposed to government support for innovation that does not discriminate between these technologies and others. A review of the economic instruments put in place so far is then proposed and indicates the predominance of demand-side rather than supply-side support for innovation in these technologies. Chapter 2 narrows the analysis to demand-side support instruments. A micro-founded diffusion model is used to conduct a counterfactual analysis evaluating the effects of these instruments on the diffusion of wind technology in six European countries. Chapter 3 develops an econometric method for measuring the knowledge generated in low-carbon energy technologies. Using a common latent factor model, we estimate a quality index of patented inventions between 1980 and 2010, in fifteen types of technologies and in six innovating countries. Chapter 4 revisits the question of the optimal design of the patent system when it addresses a process invention whose remuneration depends on policies for pricing environmental externalities. Chapter 5 summarizes our results and deduces the main messages.

An ambitious agreement in Paris must go beyond the limits of the one-legged protocol signed in Kyoto or the self-service system introduced in Copenhagen where everyone can pick and choose what suits them. The Paris agreement must set a framework, with long-term visibility and regular adjustment processes over time. Like the Montreal Protocol for the protection of the ozone layer, such an agreement must be based on three pillars: a strong political commitment from governments, a rigorous and independent measurement, verification and reporting system, and powerful economic instruments. The key instrument to combat greenhouse gas emissions is the introduction of international carbon pricing.

The Paris Climate 2015 meeting is the deadline for laying the foundations for a universal agreement. An ambitious climate agreement rests on three pillars: a commitment from governments, an independent monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) system and the establishment of an international carbon price. In this article, we propose a method that combines taxation and permit markets. The first step is to introduce an international carbon bonus-malus, with a tax of about $7 per ton of CO2, calculated on the basis of the gap between a country's average per capita emission level and the world average. This pricing would have the dual objective of encouraging low-emission countries to join the common MRV system and facilitating the fulfillment of the promise to transfer $100 billion annually to the least developed countries. Secondly, a transcontinental carbon market must be created, based on the CO2 trading systems in Europe, China and the United States. Interconnecting these different markets requires the establishment of a common governance to ensure that the major emitters commit to trajectories compatible with the objective of limiting global warming to 2°C.

The demographic structure of a country influences economic activity. The “second dividend” modifies growth. Accordingly, in general equilibrium, the second dividend and the demographic structure are interrelated. This paper aims at assessing empirically the “second dividend” in a dynamic, empirical and intertemporal setting that allows for measuring its impact on growth, its intergenerational redistributive effects, and its interaction with the demographic structure. The paper uses a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, an energy module and a public finance module that distinguishes between non-ageing-related public spending and a pension regime. Policy scenarios compare the consequences of different scenarios of recycling a carbon tax through lower proportional income taxes rather than higher public lump-sum expenditures. They are computed for two countries with different demographics (France and Germany). Results suggest that the magnitude of the “second dividend” is significantly related with the demographic structure. The more concentrated the demographic structure on cohorts with higher income and saving rate, the stronger the effect on capital supply of the second dividend. The second dividend weighs on the welfare of relatively aged working cohorts. It fosters the wellbeing of young working cohorts and of future generations. The more concentrated the demographic structure on aged working cohorts, the higher the intergenerational redistributive effects of the second dividend.

No summary available.

No summary available.

No summary available.

No summary available.

No summary available.

No summary available.

No summary available.

In this paper we study the dynamic general equilibrium path of an economy and the associated optimal growth path in a two-sector overlapping generations model with a stock pollutant. A sector (power generation) is polluting, and the other (final good) is not. Pollution is regulated by tradable emission permits. The issue is to see whether the optimal growth path can be replicated in equilibrium with pollution permits, given that some permits must be issued free of charge for the sake of political acceptability. We first analyze the many adverse impacts of free allowances, and then we propose a policy rule that allows optimality and acceptability to be reconciled.

"Does nature have a price? How can we value the capital it represents in order to build a different relationship between man and his environment? Can we make the ecological imperative compatible with economic prosperity? This book breaks with traditional economic thinking, which considers nature as a limited stock of resources, whose depletion threatens growth. Christian De Perthuis and Pierre-André Jouvet oppose this vision based on scarcity with the notion of a regulatory function: the services provided by nature, such as climate stability or biodiversity, cannot remain free of charge if we want to maintain the possibility of growth. Exploring the fields of experimentation already open for climate and biodiversity, the authors show that there is a breeding ground for innovation and investment for sustainable growth. They reveal the challenges of the energy and ecological transition from a new angle." [Source: 4th cover].

This thesis deals with the modernization of the Urban Water Systems of Europe XV (UWS). Beginning in the late 1990s, this process of re-regulation of EUHSs is transforming the European regulatory framework for water management. It aims to improve the functioning of governance in order, in particular, to set a sustainable course for the EUMS. However, the interim assessments are mixed and highlight the need for an analytical characterization and explanation of the modernization of EUWHs, in order to identify unanticipated effects. Therefore, the thesis addresses the effects of SHUE modernization in its organizational and sustainable dimensions. The objective of the thesis is to provide an interpretation of the impacts of modernization on the governance structure of SHUEs and its effectiveness from a sustainability perspective. Anchored in an institutional economics approach, the approach adopted compares the German, French and English models and is organized in two stages. The first stage is based on empirical observation. The phenomena characterizing modernization are identified and formulated in the form of stylized facts. The second part explains these phenomena theoretically. In view of the contributions and limitations of the various institutional approaches, it is decided to mobilize the neoinstitutionalist current to account for the organizational aspects and the Institutional Resource Regimes approach to deal with the sustainable dimension of the modernization of the SHUE. This thesis argues that modernization leads to a mutation of the coordination modalities of SHUEs, while intensifying and polarizing the sustainability problems around the economic pillar. At the organizational level, we show that, on the one hand, modernization tends to depoliticize SHUEs and that, on the other hand, the degree of integration of its principles in a SHUE is positively correlated to a resilient socio-institutional dynamic. These two phenomena are mainly the result of a hybridization of institutional arrangements towards the market pole. The change in contractual forms and the attenuation of property rights within SHUEs reduce the direct control of the state and increase the capacity of actors to adapt quickly. Regarding the potential for sustainability, a lack of coherence in the development of the re-regulation of SHUEs explains the relatively pessimistic outlook. We show that this paradox manifests an intrinsic inability of modernization to maximize the sustainability potential of SHUE. If the development of regulation is supposed to improve the quality of governance, in our case, it is accompanied by a mechanical increase in coordination costs that hinders the achievement of a sustainable trajectory.

This paper investigates the link between wholesale electricity prices in Europe and the CO2 cost, i.e. the price of European Union Allowances (EUAs), over the two first phases of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). We set up a theoretical framework and an empirical model to estimate to what extent daily fluctuations of CO2 costs may have impacted electricity prices. Regarding estimation results for the first phase of the EU ETS, about 42% of estimated pass-through rates appear to be statistically significant, while only one third of them are statistically different from zero in the second phase. We try to improve those results by proposing alternative estimates based on the EU ETS compliance periods.

The economic crises seems blinding the governments and major economic actors toward environmental troubles. Nevertheless, the impacts of population growth and economic expansion have now the potential to disrupt important regulatory functions of global ecological systems. Green growth involves transforming the production and consumption processes in order to maintain or restore these regulatory functions of the planet's natural capital. It requires that environmental facto rs be treated as an essential factor of production and not merely an externality. In practice, this transition depends on advances being made in four areas: widening the concept of efficiency. energy transitions. inclusion of the value of natural capital in economic life. and a revision of the scale of risks within the financial system whose innovations for allocating resources at low cost to green growth would be greatly facilitated by effective pricing of environmental pollution.

No summary available.

No summary available.

For the authors, nature is a set of regulatory systems such as water or climate, but which is threatened by current growth patterns. They propose to consider these systems as a natural production factor and to move towards a green economy. Examples are taken to guide communities and businesses.

No summary available.

No summary available.

This thesis work focuses on the economic conditions necessary for the emergence of a bioenergy filière through torrefied biomass. This research was conducted following two complementary approaches, one normative, focusing on the study of the behavior of the actors in this filière, and the other positive, focusing on the conditions for the existence of the torrefied biomass market. We study the values that the offreur and the requester associate with the economic decision to invest in new energy technologies and to purchase biomass. We measured the demand of the energy sectors afin to confront it with the offre and deduce an exchange price based on the flexibility of the industrialists in their production process and the environmental constraints they are subject to. The thesis consists of three papers (Chapters 2, 3, and 4 in English) and two confidential studies (Chapters 1 and 5 in French). Chapter 1 presents a qualitative field survey conducted at the national level, identificating potential applicants and determining the techno-economic factors that may influence it. Chapter 2 studies the investment and production decision of an ambiguity-averse agent facing market uncertainties such as the number of players and the effet of competition from other fossil fuels on the selling price of its biomass. We observe asymmetric effects of the two uncertainties on the optimal amounts of production and show theoretically and then numerically that ambiguity aversion tends to decrease the optimal levels of investment and production. Chapter 3 presents the model we developed to estimate the penetration of pre-processed biomass in the power generation market as a function of modeled climate and energy policies. We derive the demand function for torrefied biomass. In Chapter 4, we develop a partial equilibrium model of offre from the torrefaction sector and biomass demand from the power and raffinage sectors to estimate an equilibrium trading price of torrefied biomass as a function of the long-run CO2 price. Enfin, this positive approach is complemented by a logistic study presented in Chapter 5 afin determining the optimal supply strategy and size of pretreatment units located in a biomass production basin. The research work carried out allows for the development of recommendations for investors and institutions in charge of bioenergy development.

This thesis studies the evolution of natural gas markets in Europe until 2035 using modeling tools. The proposed model, GaMMES, is based on an oligopolistic description of the markets and its main advantages are: a high level of detail of the economic structure of the gas chain and an endogenous consideration of long-term contracts upstream as well as substitution with oil products and coal on the demand side. First, we study the issue of gas supply security in Europe and the conditions for regulating markets vulnerable to the risk of supply disruption, especially from Russia. Three case studies are proposed according to the degree of dependence and the nature of regulation in place: the German market of the 1980s and the current markets of Bulgaria and Spain. In particular, we study the evolution of market characteristics as a function of the risk of disruption and the type of regulation to be put in place to ensure social welfare optimality. Then, we propose a dynamic systems model to take into account the energy substitution between coal, oil and natural gas. Our approach allows us to estimate a new functional form of the demand function for natural gas, which includes both energy substitution and consumption inertia due to end-user investments. In a third step, we use this demand function in a partial equilibrium model of natural gas markets in Europe. The GaMMES model, written as a complementarity problem, represents the main players in the natural gas industry by considering their strategic interactions and market powers. It has been applied to the natural gas market in North-East Europe in order to study the evolution, until 2035, of consumption, spot prices, long-term prices and volumes, production and dependence on foreign imports. Finally, we propose a stochastic extension of the GaMMES model in order to analyze the impact of the strong fluctuation of the Brent price on the gas markets. An econometric study was conducted to calculate the probability law of the oil price, when modeled as a random variable, in order to build and weight the scenario tree. The results allow us to understand how the randomness modifies the strategic behaviors of the actors, in particular at the level of long-term contracts. Finally, the value of the stochastic solution is calculated in order to quantify the importance of taking into account oil price fluctuations for each actor in the chain.

No summary available.