GODARD Mathilde

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We use quasi-random variation in graduation years during the onset of a very deep national recession to study the relationship between early labor market conditions and young females' family formation outcomes. A policy-pilot affecting the length of upper-secondary vocational tracks allows us to compare females who graduated into the onset of the Swedish financial crisis of the 1990s to those graduating during the final phase of the preceding economic boom while netting out the main effect of the policy. We find pronounced, but short-lived, negative labor market effects from early exposure to the recession for low-grade students in particular. In contrast, we document very long-lasting effects on family formation outcomes, again concentrated among low-grade students. Young women who graduated into the recession because of the policy-pilot formed their first stable partnerships earlier and had their first children earlier. Their partners had lower grades, which we show to be a strong predictor of divorce, and worse labor market performance. Divorces were more prevalent and the ensuing increase in single motherhood was long-lasting. These negative effects on marital stability generated persistent increases in the use of welfare benefits despite the short-lived impact on labor market outcomes. The results suggest that young women respond to early labor market prospects by changing the quality threshold for entering into family formation, a process which affects the frequency of welfare-dependent single mothers during more than a decade thereafter.

No summary available.

No summary available.

No summary available.

No summary available.

No summary available.

No summary available.

We use quasi-random variation in graduation years during the onset of a very deep national recession to study the relationship between early labor market conditions and young females' family formation outcomes. A policy-pilot affecting the length of upper-secondary vocational tracks allows us to compare females who graduated into the onset of the Swedish financial crisis of the 1990s to those graduating during the final phase of the preceding economic boom while netting out the main effect of the policy. We find pronounced, but short-lived, negative labor market effects from early exposure to the recession for low-grade students in particular. In contrast, we document very long-lasting effects on family formation outcomes, again concentrated among low-grade students. Young women who graduated into the recession because of the policy-pilot formed their first stable partnerships earlier and had their first children earlier. Their partners had lower grades, which we show to be a strong predictor of divorce, and worse labor market performance. Divorces were more prevalent and the ensuing increase in single motherhood was long-lasting. These negative effects on marital stability generated persistent increases in the use of welfare benefits despite the short-lived impact on labor market outcomes. The results suggest that young women respond to early labor market prospects by changing the quality threshold for entering into family formation, a process which affects the frequency of welfare-dependent single mothers during more than a decade thereafter.

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This paper investigates whether leaving school in a bad economy deteriorates health in the long run. It focuses on low-educated individuals in England and Wales – specifically, individuals who left full-time education in their last year of compulsory schooling – who entered the labour market immediately after the 1973 oil crisis. Unemployment rates sharply increased in the wake of this crisis, such that between 1974 and 1976, each school cohort faced worse economic conditions at labour-market entry than did the previous cohort. Our identification strategy relies on the comparison of very similar pupils – born in the same year and having a similar quantity of education – whose school-leaving behaviour in different economic conditions was exogenously implied by compulsory schooling laws. We provide evidence that, unlike school-leavers who did postpone their entry into the labour market during the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, pupils’ decisions to leave school at compulsory age immediately after the 1973 oil crisis were not endogenous to the contemporaneous economic conditions at labour-market entry. We use a repeated cross section of individuals over the period 1983-2001 from the General Household Survey (GHS) and adopt a lifecourse perspective, from 7 to 26 years after school-leaving. Our results show that poor economic conditions at labourmarket entry are particularly damaging to women’s health. Women who left school in a bad economy are more likely to report poorer health and to consult a general practitioner over the whole period under study (1983-2001). Additional evidence suggests that they are also more likely to suffer from a longstanding illness/disability over the whole period. For men, the health impact of poor economic conditions at labour-market entry is less obvious and not robust to all specifications.

This thesis proposes to analyze the effects of ruptures in occupational trajectories on the health status of individuals in Europe. We consider two breaks in the career path: one at the beginning of the career -- entry into the labor market in a deteriorated economy -- and the other at the end of the career -- the transition to retirement. Between these two critical periods, we are specifically interested in the impact on health of a break, this time anticipated: the fear of losing one's job. Our empirical analyses combine data from European and British surveys. In order to overcome the endogeneity problems inherent in any empirical analysis of the link between health and career trajectory, we apply exogenous shocks to the careers of individuals. We thus use a natural experiment (the 1973 oil crisis) and the institutional characteristics as defined in the legislation of each European country (legal retirement ages, degrees of employment protection, compulsory schooling rules). Our project aims to identify a causal link between the professional activity of individuals and their obesity category through the use of specific econometric techniques taking into account endogeneity and the use of data from the GAZEL cohort (which has been following 20,000 volunteers employed at EDF-GDF since 1989).

This paper estimates the causal effect of perceived job insecurity – that is, the fear of involuntary job loss – on health in a sample of men from 22 European countries. We rely on an original instrumental variable approach on the basis of the idea that workers perceive greater job security in countries where employment is strongly protected by the law and more so if employed in industries where employment protection legislation is more binding. that is, in induastries with a higher natural rate of dismissals. Using cross-country data from the 2010 European Working Conditions Survey, we show that, when the potential endogeneity of job insecurity is not accounted for, the latter appears to deteriorate almost all health outcomes. When tackling the endogeneity issue by estimating an instrumental variable model and dealing with potential weak-instrument issues, the health-damaging effect of job insecurity is confirmed for a limited subgroup of health outcomes. namely, suffering from headaches or eyestrain and skin problems. As for other health variables, the impact of job insecurity appears to be insignificant at conventional levels.

This paper estimates the causal effect of perceived job insecurity { i.e. the fear of involuntary job loss { on health in a sample of men from 22 European countries. We rely on an original instrumental variable approach based on the idea that workers perceive greater job security in countries where employment is strongly protected by the law, and relatively more so if employed in industries where employment protection legislation is more binding, i.e. in industries with a higher natural rate of dismissals. Using cross-country data from the 2010 European Working Conditions Survey, we show that when the potential endogeneity of job insecurity is not accounted for, the latter appears to deteriorate almost all health outcomes. When tackling the endogeneity issue by estimating an IV model and dealing with potential weak-instrument issues, the health-damaging effect of job insecurity is confirmed for a limited subgroup of health outcomes, namely suffering from headaches or eyestrain and skin problems. As for other health variables, the impact of job insecurity appears to be insignificant at conventional levels.