TOUBON Hector

This thesis aims to highlight the determinants of medical innovation and its effects on economic growth. It is based on the construction of a database of expenditures and consumption of health goods and services between 1980 and 2010, as well as on three theoretical models. The results, for cohorts born between 1923 and 2010, show that medical innovations are essentially determined by demographic variations. Moreover, even if these medical innovations have historically allowed the emergence of important economies of scale, they do not currently play a driving role in macroeconomic growth. Indeed, under the current conditions of stable survival curves, the mechanics of medical innovation do not appear to be a driving force for short-term macroeconomic growth. The multiplier effects of medical innovation on economic growth would therefore be negative or nil in the short term.

We use the National Transfer Accounts methodology to calculate the lifecycle deficit in France for the years 1979–2005. During this period, consumption profiles were roughly constant over age, while labor income profiles shifted to higher ages. The share of the aggregate lifecycle deficit in GDP rose sharply in the 1980s due to an increase in the mean age of the population. In contrast, the per capita shares of the lifecycle deficit attributed to the population under 20 and over 60 varied little during this period, even though the relative weights of these two age-segments has shifted continuously in favor of the latter.

We use the National Transfer Accounts methodology to calculate the lifecycle deficit in France for the years 1979-2005. During this period, consumption profiles were roughly constant over age, while labor income profiles shifted to higher ages. The share of the aggregate lifecycle deficit in GDP rose sharply in the 1980s due to an increase in the mean age of the population. In contrast, the per capita shares of the lifecycle deficit attributed to the population under 20 and over 60 varied little during this period, even though the relative weights of these two age-segments has shifted continuously in favor of the latter.