EL EUCH Omar

The aim of this thesis is to study various aspects of the rough behavior of the volatility observed universally on financial assets. This is done in six steps. In the first part, we investigate how rough volatility can naturally emerge from typical behav- iors of market participants. To do so, we build a microscopic price model based on Hawkes processes in which we encode the main features of the market microstructure. By studying the asymptotic behavior of the price on the long run, we obtain a rough version of the Heston model exhibiting rough volatility and leverage effect. Using this original link between Hawkes processes and the Heston framework, we compute in the second part of the thesis the characteristic function of the log-price in the rough Heston model. In the classical Heston model, the characteristic function is expressed in terms of a solution of a Riccati equation. We show that rough Heston models enjoy a similar formula, the Riccati equation being replaced by its fractional version. This formula enables us to overcome the non-Markovian nature of the model in order to deal with derivatives pricing. In the third part, we tackle the issue of managing derivatives risks under the rough Heston model. We establish explicit hedging strategies using as instruments the underlying asset and the forward variance curve. This is done by specifying the infinite-dimensional Markovian structure of the rough Heston model. Being able to price and hedge derivatives in the rough Heston model, we challenge the model to practice in the fourth part. More precisely, we show the excellent fit of the model to historical and implied volatilities. We also show that the model reproduces the Zumbach’s effect, that is a time reversal asymmetry which is observed empirically on financial data. While the Hawkes approximation enabled us to solve the pricing and hedging issues under the rough Heston model, this approach cannot be extended to an arbitrary rough volatility model. We study in the fifth part the behavior of the at-the-money implied volatility for small maturity under general stochastic volatility models. In the same spirit as the Hawkes approximation, we look in the sixth part of this thesis for a tractable Markovian approximation that holds for a general class of rough volatility models. By applying this approximation on the specific case of the rough Heston model, we derive a numerical scheme for solving fractional Riccati equations. Finally, we end this thesis by studying a problem unrelated to rough volatility. We consider an exchange looking for the best make-take fees system to attract liquidity in its platform. Using a principal-agent framework, we describe the best contract that the exchange should propose to the market maker and provide the optimal quotes displayed by the latter. We also argue that this policy leads to higher quality of liquidity and lower trading costs for investors.

This thesis aims at understanding several aspects of the roughness of volatility observed universally on financial assets. This is done in six steps. In the first part, we explain this property from the typical behaviors of agents in the market. More precisely, we build a microscopic price model based on Hawkes processes reproducing the important stylized facts of the market microstructure. By studying the long-run price behavior, we show the emergence of a rough version of the Heston model (called rough Heston model) with leverage. Using this original link between Hawkes processes and Heston models, we compute in the second part of this thesis the characteristic function of the log-price of the rough Heston model. This characteristic function is given in terms of a solution of a Riccati equation in the case of the classical Heston model. We show the validity of a similar formula in the case of the rough Heston model, where the Riccati equation is replaced by its fractional version. This formula allows us to overcome the technical difficulties due to the non-Markovian character of the model in order to value derivatives. In the third part, we address the issue of risk management of derivatives in the rough Heston model. We present hedging strategies using the underlying asset and the forward variance curve as instruments. This is done by specifying the infinite-dimensional Markovian structure of the model. Being able to value and hedge derivatives in the rough Heston model, we confront this model with the reality of financial markets in the fourth part. More precisely, we show that it reproduces the behavior of implied and historical volatility. We also show that it generates the Zumbach effect, which is a time-reversal asymmetry observed empirically on financial data. In the fifth part, we study the limiting behavior of the implied volatility at low maturity in the framework of a general stochastic volatility model (including the rough Bergomi model), by applying a density development of the asset price. While the approximation based on Hawkes processes has addressed several questions related to the rough Heston model, in Part 6 we consider a Markovian approximation applying to a more general class of rough volatility models. Using this approximation in the particular case of the rough Heston model, we obtain a numerical method for solving the fractional Riccati equations. Finally, we conclude this thesis by studying a problem not related to the rough volatility literature. We consider the case of a platform seeking the best make-take fee scheme to attract liquidity. Using the principal-agent framework, we describe the best contract to offer to the market maker as well as the optimal quotes displayed by the latter. We also show that this policy leads to better liquidity and lower transaction costs for investors.