BOROCCO Etienne

This article tackles the issue of rational destabilization in the commodity markets. The theoretical framework is a three-period model with futures positions revised within the intermediate holding period of the spot market. Technical traders enter the market in the intermediate period. The model outcome is a multiplicity of equilibria that are a source of instability. We show that the risk management of the rising weight of technical trading generates a higher variability in spot prices and damages long hedging. Furthermore, this article highlights caveats about the empirical measures of hedging pressure and excessive speculation that can be biased.

This Ph.D. project aims to study the heterogeneity of information and beliefs among speculators on commodity markets to tackle the issues of the risk premium and volatility puzzles. The first step was to introduce information asymmetry in a storage model. The output is an efficient market where it is possible to distinguish a random informational effect from a deterministic physical effect. The second step is to estimate empirically the parameters of a modified version of the theoretical model above. The rationality hypothesis is relaxed."Chartists," who are trend-followers, are introduced. The goal of this paper is to estimate their influence on asset pricing. The chosen market for the empirical study is the Henry Hub natural gas market. The third step is a model where rational agents and bounded-rational agents interact together in a commodity market. This last chapter shows how trend-followers in the futures market can destabilize the spot market.

The thesis project consists in studying the heterogeneity of information and beliefs among traders in commodity markets to tackle the puzzles of volatility and risk premium in these markets. The first step was to introduce information asymmetry into a storage model. It was found that the market is efficient and that a random informational effect can be distinguished from a deterministic physical effect. The second step is to empirically estimate the parameters of a modified version of the theoretical model mentioned above. The assumption of economic rationality is relaxed. Chartists" are introduced who follow the courses. The aim of this paper is to estimate their influence on price formation. The market chosen for the empirical study is the American Henry Hub natural gas market. The third step is a model where rational and boundedly rational agents coexist in a commodity market. This last chapter shows how traders following the trend in the futures market can destabilize the physical market.