SÉMINAIRE DE LA CHAIRE ÉNERGIE & PROSPÉRITÉ

Modélisation de la transition écologique

Le séminaire interne de la Chaire Energie et Prospérité vous annonce la quatrième session de son séminaire mensuel, qui aura lieu le Jeudi 14 Avril 2016 de 12H30 à 14H00 à l’Ecole Normale Supérieure (45 Rue d’Ulm), Salle Weil. La présentation durera 45 minutes suivie d’une discussion et de questions. Le séminaire est ouvert à tous dans la limite des places disponibles. N’hésitez pas à faire passer ce messages aux personnes susceptibles d’être intéressées. Plus d’informations sur le site du séminaire.

Speaker: Silvia Concettini (Ecole Polytechnique)

Title: Renewable generation and network congestion: an empirical analysis of the Italian Power Market

Abstract: This article investigates the effects of increasing renewable production on the frequency and the cost of electricity network congestion. The impact of renewable supply on network congestion may be explicitly examined in electricity markets organized as two or more inter-connected sub-markets (or bidding zones) where transmission rights are assigned through implicit auctions. Using a unique database tracking all the transactions in the Italian Power Market we have estimated two econometric models on five zonal pairings: a multinomial logit model to assess the effects of renewable production on the occurrence and the direction of congestion and a two stage least square model with segmented regression to quantify the impact of renewables on congestion costs. Our analysis suggests that a larger local RES supply decreases the probability of suffering congestion in entry and increases the probability of causing a congestion in exit compared to no congestion case. The estimations on congestion cost reveal that increasing RES production tends to push the congestion cost towards zero. However, larger supply shocks may determine a change in flow directions whose effect is to modify the sign of congestion cost and not its absolute value. Our results have significant implications for the definition of optimal environmental and energy policies when locational investment signals are also carefully taken into account.