Le séminaire interne de la Chaire Énergie et Prospérité se tiendra ce mois-ci le Vendredi 24 Février 2017 de 12H00 à 14H00 à l’École Normale Supérieure (Salle du CERES). . Retrouvez la sur le site du séminaire et de la chaire. Les détails du séminaire sont ci-dessous (en anglais).

Place : École Normale Supérieure (8 Rue Erasme), salle du CERES, E045 (Niv. 0)

Speaker : Fatma Rostom (Université Paris 1)

Titre : Prey-Predator Dynamic Modelling of the 1900-2100 Copper Reserves, Production, Price, Revenues and Production Costs (joint work with G. Giraud and O. Vidal)

Abstract : The evolution of primary copper reserves and production, price, revenues of the mining industry and costs of production are modeled using a “prey-predator” approach. The model provides information on the first-order couplings between material and monetary fluxes and reserves. It is used to simulate a range of possible future paths of production by changing the model parameters within a realistic range of values deduced from historical data. Simulations assuming a constant growth of inelastic demand and an evolution of model parameters in line with the 1900-2015 trends lead to bell-shaped copper productions that peak between 2030 and 2050. However, other scenarios are possible and discussed which lead to production plateau instead of peaks and/or postpone the eventual peak of production after/beyond 2050.

 

Organizer

  • Chaire Energie et Prospérité

Lieu

École Normale Supérieure 8 Rue Erasme, Paris , 75005 France