The effect of stumpage prices on large-area forest growth forecasts based on socio-ecological models.

Summary Forest ecosystems are typical examples of socio-ecological systems. However, in terms of modelling, the social aspect has been given far less attention than the ecological aspect. In this study, we modelled the impact of eco- nomic and social factors on the occurrence of harvesting. This harvest model was then integrated into an individual- based model of forest growth designed for large-area forec asts. The resulting s ocio-ecological model was then used to produce volume predictions for two regions of France. Among the economic factors, the annual stumpage prices in interaction with the species proved to be a signi fi cant predictor of harvest occurrence. Simulating different stum- page price evolutions made it possible to predict supply curves for the two regions. Projections until 2060 showed that increases in stumpage prices will be detrimental to st anding volumes in both regions. Integrating the demand for wood products into such socio-ecological models in forestry would be a major improvement.