CAURLA Sylvain

Forest policy is increasingly mobilizing the forestry sector to contribute to environmental objectives, and modeling is often used as a means to interrogate the future. This thesis explores the ability of forest sector models (FSMs), bio-economic simulation models, to support this transition.Conceptually, we explore the literature behind FSMs as well as the literature on the epistemology of economic models. We show that forestry policy has been a strong determinant of research practices, influencing the representations of the sector in the models and the discourses mobilized to conduct the simulations. We also illustrate the influence of other factors: the nature of the forest facts, the local context, the availability of data and past practices. We then look at recent developments and show that while wood production and trade were the original research themes, environmental issues such as renewable energy production or habitat protection are now central. However, their integration remains uneven, and they are treated all the more closely as they come closer to the original subjects. Conversely, due to the difficulty of estimating an economic value or the formulation of tools at an inappropriate scale, the modeling of certain cultural and regulatory services is more difficult and superficial.We then conduct two case studies on climate change mitigation and adaptation and on the French forestry sector, where the diversity of local contexts justifies taking a detailed look at the upstream of the sector. We use the French Forest Sector Model (FFSM) and seek to implement two methodological levers likely to improve the consideration of environmental issues: the coupling of models and the consideration of the heterogeneity of environmental conditions.The FFSM is first used with a model of optimal rotations including amenities other than wood in order to study the implications of a management seeking to sequester carbon. We show that, in the short term, sequestration is mainly enhanced by postponing harvesting. In the long term, additional benefits are expected by changing forest composition and structure, leading to more diverse forest landscapes. These trends, however, show strong spatial heterogeneity between and within regions, highlighting the importance of considering the local context.In situ carbon, however, is exposed to risks of non-permanence. We assess the consequences for the forestry and wood industry of the evolution of fire regimes in the context of climate change and the implications for projections of the uncertainties related to this evolution. We use a probabilistic fire activity model that we couple to the FFSM, and perform multiple simulations for several levels of radiative forcing and climate models. Although locally important, the impact of fires remains limited at the scale of the sector. They affect a small proportion of the resource each year but in a cumulative manner, and their projected consequences are particularly visible in the second half of the 21st century. Interannual variations in fire activity have little propagation to the dynamics of the sector, and the uncertainty in the projections comes mainly from the choice of model and climate scenarios. Uncertainty due to the stochasticity of the fire phenomenon never predominates but accounts for a significant portion of the total uncertainty. These results highlight the importance of considering multiple scenarios and the inherent variability of ecological processes in foresight using large-scale bio-economic models.

No summary available.

The validation of integrated assessment models is an important challenge in multi- and interdisciplinary research. We show here that validation methods, often summarized as a comparison between model results and real past data, are complex and varied and that, in the case of models whose objective is to shed prospective light on the long term, validation cannot be reduced to comparison methods. To illustrate our remarks, we apply our reflection to bioeconomic simulation models of the forestry and wood industry.

Integrated simulation models are commonly used to provide insight on the complex functioning of social-ecological systems, often drawing on earlier tools with a narrower focus. Forest sector models (FSM) encompass a set of simulation models originally developed to forecast economic developments in timber markets but now commonly used to analyse climate and environmental policy. In this paper, we document and investigate this evolution through the prism of the inclusion of several non-timber objectives into FSM. We perform a systematic, quantitative survey of the literature followed by a more in-depth narrative review. Results show that a majority of papers in FSM research today focuses on non-timber objectives related to climate change mitigation, namely carbon sequestration and bioenergy production. Habitat conservation, deforestation and the mitigation of disturbances are secondary foci, while aspects such as forest recreation and many regulation services are absent. Non-timber objectives closest to the original targets of FSM, as well as those for which economic values are easier to estimate, have been more deeply integrated to the models, entering the objective function as decision variables. Others objectives are usually modelled as constraints and only considered through their negative economic impacts on the forest sector. Current limits to a deeper inclusion of non-timber objectives include the models’ ability to represent local environmental conditions as well as the formulation of the optimisation problem as a maximisation of economic welfare. Recent research has turned towards the use of model couplings and the development of models at the local scale to overcome these limitations. Challenges for future research comprise extensions to other non-timber objectives, especially cultural services, as well as model calibration at lower spatial scales.

Schedules of declining discount rates have been advocated, and adopted by several European governments. They undermine classical solutions to forest economics problems, especially optimal rotation. Adapting classical first-order conditions created problems of local optimisation. A global search algorithm allowed inclusion of initial costs and thinning revenues. It produced results according with expectations - lengthening rotations as time progressed - and results paralleling those for constant discount rates - shorter rotations for high productivity and unthinned crops, and with zero crop formation costs. Apparent anomalies in the pattern of rotations are the due result of opportunity costs from later rotations, which increase as discount rate declines. Sometimes the solution oscillates, usually owing to steps in the discount schedule or irregular profile of felling revenues. Inspection allows the most profitable result to be identified.

No summary available.

No summary available.

This article proposes to study the links between territorialization and greening within the French forestry and wood industry. We show that the parallel emergence of the two processes has legitimized the territory as a relevant scale for the implementation of ecological alternatives in the forest, but also throughout the sector. The resulting changes in practices show that the two processes should be considered as concomitant, operating at a key moment in the reorganization of production systems and feeding off each other, rather than as the cause or consequence of each other. While existing tools for evaluating practices are essentially at the development stage, a particularly fertile front is developing at the intersection of the environmental sciences and the humanities.

In Western Europe, future climate changes go hand-in-hand with increasing risks of droughts and heat waves during summer. For forest ecosystems, a drought may result in both an increase in tree mortality and a reduction in tree growth. These impacts are delayed over time, i.e., there is a time gap between the drought and its impacts on the forest stand, which makes it possible to adjust forest management practices and, in particular, to prematurely harvest the impacted stand and to replant a new one if it is economically profitable to do so. Consequently, we define Climate Services (CS) as the information that supports forest owners in their decision to prematurely harvest or not after a drought. Our paper aims at developing a method to estimate the economic value of these CS in the case of a maritime pine stand in Southwestern France. Using a comparison of Land Expected Values (LEV) over an infinite period of forest rotations, our analysis suggests that the Climate Service Value (CSV) is highly dependent on three characteristics: (1) the age of the forest exposed to the drought. (2) the intensity of the drought in terms of both mortality and growth impacts. and (3) the discount rate value used. Overall, for a 2% discount rate for a young stand (less than 15–20 years old), the CSV is rather low and ranges from 0 to €50/ha depending on the intensity of the drought. However, for a mature stand, the CSV rapidly increases, up to a maximum the year before the optimal harvest date. In this latter case, the CSV may be as high as €4900/ha for intense droughts.

We explore the implications of managing forests for the dual purpose of sequestering carbon and producingtimber, using a model of the forest sector that includes a Hartman-based representation of forest owners’behaviour as well as heterogeneity in environmental conditions. We focus on France, where recent policies aimat increasing the carbon sink and where the diversity of forests makes an analysis of spatial dynamics relevant,and we use recent estimates of the shadow price ofcarbon consistent with the country’s climate commitments.Results suggest that forests may sequester up to 550 MtCO2eq by 2100, driven by changes in harvest levelsand species choice, whilst rotation lengths increase overall. A spatial analysis reveals a high spatial variability forthese trends, highlighting the importance of considering the local context. Changes in investment patterns affectthe spatial distribution of forest cover types: by the end of the century, a majority of regions comprise a largershare of older, multiple-species and mixed-structure forests. Whilst such an evolution may present benefits interms of biodiversity, ecosystem services provision and resilience, it raises questions regarding the adequacy ofsuch developments with current forest policy, which also aims at increasing harvest levels. An overall mitigationstrategy for the forest sector would likely include incentives to energy and material substitution in downstreamindustries, which we did not consider and may interact with sequestration incentives.

The invasion of a forest by a pathogen is a complex dynamic and spatial problem. The induced disturbances do not only reduce the present availability of the affected tree species but alter its future availability, population structure and distribution as well. These disturbances also have an impact on the prices of wood products via supply shocks, which, in turn, influence forest management choices, thus introducing feedback effects between market and ecological dynamics. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the economic impact of an invasive pathogen at a large scale by integrating the biophysical and economic aspects of the invasion into a dynamic and spatially explicit setting. The analysis is developed using a modified version of the French Forest Sector Model (FFSM), a recursive partial equilibrium model, to which a specifically designed pathogen spread and mortality model have been coupled. We calibrated the model to represent the ash dieback invasion in France. Results showed that impacts are not homogeneous across regions and generally depend on the resource distribution, pathogen spread and market structure. We observed that the behavioural adaptation of forest managers (i.e. regeneration and harvesting choices) is a non-negligible component of the total standing volume loss.

Forest ecosystems are typical examples of socio-ecological systems. However, in terms of modelling, the social aspect has been given far less attention than the ecological aspect. In this study, we modelled the impact of eco- nomic and social factors on the occurrence of harvesting. This harvest model was then integrated into an individual- based model of forest growth designed for large-area forec asts. The resulting s ocio-ecological model was then used to produce volume predictions for two regions of France. Among the economic factors, the annual stumpage prices in interaction with the species proved to be a signi fi cant predictor of harvest occurrence. Simulating different stum- page price evolutions made it possible to predict supply curves for the two regions. Projections until 2060 showed that increases in stumpage prices will be detrimental to st anding volumes in both regions. Integrating the demand for wood products into such socio-ecological models in forestry would be a major improvement.

This review analyses and compares the most promising methods to perform ex ante economic and environmental assessment of policies at the meso scale, i.e. from local communities to subnational regions. These methods called Economic-Environment Integrated Models (EEIM) are based on the coupling of formalised economic modelling tools with environmental assessment methods. The economic modelling tools considered are Input Output (IO) models, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models, Agent-Based models (ABM), and System Dynamics (SD) models, which we pair with environmental assessment methods such as Footprints (FP), Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), or Material Flow Analysis (MFA). A grid of criteria is developed to perform a qualitative rating of the EEIMs according to existing literature. The grid encompasses the detail level of the economic modelling, the level of coupling between environmental and economic tools, the quality and diversity of indicators, the ability to account for diverse indirect effects, spatial differentiation, time aspects, and the coupled model usability. First, the results show that the couplings do not perform on the same criteria, which shows complementarity to deal with diverse issues. Second, overall, for most criteria, PE/CGE models coupled with FP/LCA ranked highest. Third, a few case studies showed that couplings involving a third tool can be beneficial— for instance AB modelling or MFA with PE/CGE-LCA/FP may allow to overcome some shortcomings such as agent behaviour modelling or data availability for biophysical flows.

We compute the optimal subsidy level for fuelwood consumption that makes it possible to achieve the French biomass energy consumption target. For this purpose, we model the competition and trade-offs between the consumption of fuelwood for heat (FW-H) and the consumption of fuelwood for electricity (FW-E). To do so, we couple a forest sector model with an electricity simulation model, and we test different scenarios combining FW-H and FW-E that account for contrasting potential increases in the carbon price and the potential reduction in the number of nuclear plants. We assess the implications of these scenarios on (1) the budgetary costs for the government, (2) industrial wood producers' profits, (3) cost savings in the power sector for the different scenarios tested, and (4) the carbon balance. We show that the scenario with the highest carbon price and the lowest number of nuclear plants is the least expensive from a budgetary perspective. Indeed, when associated with a high carbon price, co-firing may increase FW-E demand with a lower subsidy level, which makes it possible to reduce the cost of reaching the target. However, in this case, FW-E crowds out part of FW-H, which may cause political and economic issues. From a carbon balance perspective, an FW-H-only scenario performs better than any other scenario that combines FW-H and FW-E due to the relatively low emissions factors of alternative technologies for electricity generation and, in particular, nuclear energy.

This article analyzes the concept of bioeconomy and describes the nature of the economic tools used to explore it. It is an extension of a study initiated by the Laboratoire d'Economie Forestière. It follows from this work that the bioeconomy can be interpreted through two main axes: a first "disciplinary" vision (bioeconomics) and a second, more "technical-industrial" vision (bioeconomy). The disciplinary vision of bioeconomics can itself be opened up to two approaches: the Georgescu-Roegen current, which aims to profoundly modify the conception of economics (economic analysis as an open cycle integrated into a closed biological cycle) and the current aiming to integrate the disciplines of economics and biology, which is not necessarily incompatible with the principles of neoclassical economic analysis. The more "technical-industrial" and political vision, on the other hand, is mainly interested in the creation of wealth (or even growth) from the renewable resource biomass.

Part of the French timber transformation industry suffers from difficulties to adapt to recent changes on global markets. This translates into net exports of raw wood and imports of transformed products, detrimental to both the trade balance and the local creation of wealth. At the same time, no consistent and homogeneous accounts for wood product production and consumption exist at this time. This article first aims at objectifying this situation by undertaking the first material flow analysis of the French forest-wood supply chain. We then evaluate the potential consequences of various scenarios of raw wood exports reduction policies, namely subsidies for consumption or transformation and taxation of exports, on both economic outcomes for the different actors and material flows. We thus provide an example of coupling material flow analysis with economic modeling in an attempt to move from the diagnostic phase to the assessment of possible actions within a decision-making perspective.

Objectives: To quantify the contribution of the French forest-wood product chain in terms of carbon sequestration and substitution when accounting for both the physical impacts (shifts in tree growth and mortality rates) and the market impacts (increased demand of harvested wood products (HWP)) of climate change (cc) and the subsequent forest managers adaptations. (2) To assess the uncertainty of the impacts on the above carbon balance and on forest allocation. and (3) To assess the role of managers’ expectations toward these future, uncertain but highly anticipated, impacts. Methodology: We used a bio-economic model of the French Forest Sector (FFSM++) that is able to consider and integrate: (a) the effects of climate change over forest dynamics. (b) forest investment decisions (among groups of species) according to expected profitability. and (c) market effects in terms of regionalised supply, consumption and trade of HWP, depending on the forest resource stocks and international prices. By including both forest dynamics and forest products, we can evaluate the carbon balance taking the following elements into consideration: (a) carbon sequestered in live and dead biomass in the forest. (b) carbon sequestered in HWP. (c) carbon substituted when wood is used in place of fossil fuels or more energy-intensive materials. and (d) carbon released by forest operations. Results : When the model is run at constant conditions for the next century, the average carbon potential of French forests is 66.2–125.3 Mt CO2 y−1, depending on whether we consider only inventoried wood resources, HWP pools and direct energy substitution, or if we also account for the carbon stored in tree branches and roots and if we consider the more indirect, but also largely more subjective, material substitution. These values correspond to 18.3% and 34.7%, respectively, of the French 2010 emissions (361 Mt CO2). However, when we consider both the probable increment of coniferous mortality and changes in forest growth, plus the rise in HWP demand worldwide, the average sequestration rate of the French forest decreases by 6.6–5.8% to 61.8–118.0 Mt CO2 y−1. Running partial scenarios, we can assess the relative interplay of these two factors, where the price factor increases the HWP stock while decreasing the forest stocks (where the latter effect prevails), while the physical impact of climate change reduces both, but to a lesser extent. Considering short-sighted forest managers, whose behaviour is based uniquely on the observed conditions at the time decisions are made, we obtain a limited effect of the overall carbon balance but a relatively large impact on the area allocation of broadleaved vs. coniferous species.

Key message : Phytosanitary risks are an increasing threat for forest, particularly due to climate change. Risk handling measures are effective economic strategies to manage such risks, so that Economics may provide relevant methodology to address this new challenge. - Context: Hylobius abietis and Heterobasidion annosum are two phytosanitary risks generating increasing damage in the Landes de Gascogne Forest. - Aims: We provide an economic comparison of different existing risk handling measures against Hylobius abietis and Heterobasidion annosum. - Methods: We use the Land Expectation Value, i.e. Faustmann criteria, to compare the different scenarios. - Results: We find that for Hylobius abietis, chemical treatment and fallow seem to be economically preferable to the absence of risk handling measure. For Heterobasidion annosum, we show that local stump removal is always preferable to total stump removal and chemical treatment. Local stump removal should be preferred to fallow when contamination occurs during the second thinning. Finally, our results indicate that fallow is always preferable to chemical treatment. - Conclusion: Beyond the specificities of the case study, the paper proposes a methodology to analyze such a problematic.

The objective of the present work is to contribute to facilitate a global diagnosis by carrying out an analysis of wood flows at the national scale that takes into account exchanges related to imports and exports. To do so, we rely on the methodology of material flow analysis (MFA), a method for systematically assessing the flows into and out of a system defined in time and space (Brunner and Rechberger, 2003). To achieve this, we develop a data reconciliation technique inspired by Cencic and Rechberger (2008). In addition, we use the cubic meter wood fiber equivalent defined by Weimar (2009) and used by Bösch et al. (2015) as a unit.

Given the importance of anthropogenic determinants in forest ecosystems within Europe, the objective of the FFSM++ model is to link the evidence arising from biological models to socio-economic determinants, where the expected returns of forest investments represent the main drivers. Consequently, an inventory-based discrete-time Markov chain model of the forest resources is coupled with a partial equilibrium model of the market of forest products and with a microeconomic model of allocation of the harvested area to form a national-level forest sector model for France (FFSM++). In this paper, we present the model with emphasis on its spatial aspects, and we show that by only considering environmental heterogeneity and, therefore, the local characteristics of the forest under management, it is possible to realistically model management decisions such as forest investments. In particular, we propose an application that spatialises the forest growth rate, normally reported by inventory sources at the regional level, and we run long-term scenarios (until 2100) in order to simulate the effects on the forest dynamics of a potential increase in coniferous mortality in certain areas due to climate change when interactions between forest management strategies are explicitly considered.

Given the importance of anthropogenic determinants in forest ecosystems within Europe, the objective of this paper is to link the evidence arising from biological models to socio-economic determinants, where the expected returns of forest investments represent the main driver. A micro-economic area allocation module is therefore coupled with an inventory-based forest dynamics module and a partial-equilibrium market module in a national-level forest sector model for France (FFSM++). Running long-term scenarios (until 2100), we show the implication of an active management policy on forest composition: when the most profitable option drives forest investments, coniferous forests are generally preferred over broadleaved ones. This result is, however, reappraised when the risk aversion of forest owners is explicitly considered in the model, given the higher risk associated with the former. We further show the strong stability of forest ecosystems that, due to the very long cycles, undergoes very small variations in volume stocks, even in scenarios where the initial forest regeneration is strongly influenced.

No summary available.

No summary available.

We assess the economic impacts of the compensation plan implemented in the forest sector after Klaus hurricane in the south-west of France in 2009. We model this plan within the French Forest Sector Model (bio-economic partial equilibrium model), and we compare it with alternative plans assuming alternative distributions between transport and storage subsidies. Our results show that the plan as it was formulated was globally beneficial to the forest sector compared with a scenario without a plan. In addition, we show that, compared with the formulated plan, a storage-oriented alternative plan reduces the fall in price observed after the hurricane, increases storage volume, increases the total gains in surplus of the overall sector but postpones the price rebound after the shock. This is a policy-relevant result in such a context where one major risk is that windfall wood prices drop to zero.

No summary available.

No summary available.

This article attempts to determine the nature and scope of the results of a prospective economic model, the French Forest Sector Model, representing a complex bioeconomic system in the form of thousands of equations. In particular, it shows that, beyond the figures it produces, such a model has the capacity to highlight the determinants of real phenomena, to determine their order of magnitude and their sensitivity to real parameters. Within the framework of an assessment, the interest of using such a model lies in the comparison of output variables (prices, supply and demand of wood products, economic surplus) according to different scenarios.

No summary available.

Given the importance of anthropogenic determinants in forest ecosystems within Europe, the objective of the FFSM++ model is to link the evidence arising from biological models with socio-economic determinants, where the expected returns of forest investments represent the main drivers. An inventory-based forest dynamic model is hence coupled with a partial equilibrium market module and a micro-based management one in a national level French Forest Sector Model (FFSM++). The objectives of this paper are: (a) to demonstrate the importance of the interactions between climatic drivers and management strategies that such integrated approach is able to capture, with a particular focus on the effects of employing a spatial framework (b) to address the implementation of such linkage between a (non linear programming) market-module and the rest of the model where an object-oriented/agent-based approach is used. In particular an application is proposed for spatialising the forest growth rate and long-term scenarios (until 2100) are run to examine the effects on forest dynamics, and notably the interaction with forest management strategies, of several climate change scenarios.

No summary available.

Within the framework of policies aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, France now relies heavily on energy substitution. This is reflected in the implementation of aid plans for the mobilization of wood energy or the production of heat from biomass. On the other hand, the action of the State is not based, to date, on measures favoring carbon sequestration in forests because of the very partial consideration of in situ sequestration in international climate policies resulting from the Kyoto Protocol. Researchers at the Nancy Forest Economics Laboratory have developed the French Forest Sector Model (FFSM), a bioeconomic model of the French forestry sector, used for climate policy simulations and impact analysis. The first results of the FFSM model show that: (i) an ambitious substitution policy can cause tensions on the resource and on the industrial wood markets. (ii) a sequestration policy has a better carbon balance by 2020 than a substitution policy. (iii) the implementation of a generalized carbon tax would have a positive overall effect on the French forestry and wood industry.

Stimulating renewable energy is a crucial objective in view of tackling climate change and coping with future fossil fuel scarcity. In France, fuelwood appears to be an important source for the renewable energy mix. Using the French Forest Sector Model, our paper aims to assess the impacts of three policy options to stimulate fuelwood consumption: a consumer subsidy, a producer subsidy and a fixed-demand contract policy. We explored their impacts in terms of five groups of criteria: (1) forest resource dynamics. (2) variations in wood products prices and quantities consumed and produced. (3) trade balance. (4) budgetary costs. and (5) variations in agent surpluses. We show that no policy option is more desirable than another on the basis of all of these criteria and that trade-offs will determine which is the best policy option to be implemented. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

No summary available.

As France works out its plan to tackle climate change issues, questions are arising in the forest sector as to how sectoral mitigation programs such as those designed to enhance fuelwood consumption or to stimulate in-forest carbon sequestration may coincide with an inter-sectoral program such as an economy-wide carbon tax. This paper provides insights into this question by exploring the impacts of (1) a combination of a carbon tax and a fuelwood policy, and (2) a combination of a carbon tax and a sequestration policy on (i) the economy of the forest sector, and (ii) the dynamics of the forest resource. To do this, we used a modified version of the French Forest Sector Model (FFSM) and carried out simulations on a 2020 time horizon. Basing our analysis on the fuelwood sector, we showed that wood producers always benefit from the combination of a carbon tax with either a fuelwood policy or a sequestration policy at the national level. Conversely, and although it favors wood products instead of non-wood substitutes, a carbon tax always decreases consumer surpluses by increasing wood product prices. As a consequence, the combination of a carbon tax with sectoral policies is likely to raise questions about the political economy of the mitigation program. This is particularly true in the case of a combination of a carbon tax with a sequestration policy, which already decreases consumer surpluses. We eventually showed that by increasing transport costs between domestic regions, the carbon tax reallocates production patterns over French territory which could lead to the necessity of a regional breakdown of policy-mixes in the forest sector.

We define forest sector economic models as models representing the aggregate economic behavior of agents in the forestry-wood industry. In particular, we distinguish them from the microeconomic models of individual decisions developed from the 19th century, notably under the impulse of Martin Faustmann (1849), whose approach was resolutely individual and normative. The construction of aggregate models began in the second half of the 20th century. The objective was to explain the determinants of the fluctuation of wood product prices following the oil shocks of the 1970s. Several modelling trends in the forestry-wood sector developed during this period. This article traces their history and examines the general characteristics of the models that emerged. This exercise is a necessary prerequisite to any in-depth study of these models and allows us to better understand their scope and usefulness. First, we analyze the existing models and construct a typology. This typology distinguishes four families according to methodological and theoretical characteristics. Second, we review the historical development of forest sector modeling and show that the models listed in the first part are based on theories and methodologies developed in several disciplinary fields, from environmental economics to nonlinear programming to research on optimal transport.

We analyzed the economic impacts of the implementation of the windfall plan after the Klaus storm in 2009 using a model representing the French forestry and wood industry (FFSM). To do so, we modified the initial model to include a representation of the storage of windfall wood and the supply of windfall wood. First, we compared a scenario without storms with a scenario with storms and without a plan and with a scenario with storms and with a plan. It appears that under the hypothesis of no degradation of wood in the forest, the plan as it was implemented favored storage compared to a situation without a plan which, on the contrary, leads to an increase in direct consumption and, to a lesser extent, export. Nevertheless, and this is the second conclusion, the plan as implemented seems to have accelerated mobilization regardless of the destination of the wood (storage, direct consumption, export). This is an important conclusion insofar as, if we assume that a part of the wood is degraded in the forest, this acceleration of mobilization avoids economic losses. For a degradation rate of 5% per year, we have seen that the plan leads to an increase in absolute value of the volume mobilized for all destinations compared to a situation without a plan. Thirdly, from the point of view of the overall surplus, the model shows that the windfall plan as implemented was beneficial since, whatever the assumption of timber degradation in the forest, the sum of the total economic surplus discounted over the period 2009-2020 is positive. Nevertheless, it appears that the value of the surplus gain calculated in relation to a scenario without the plan is very sensitive to the assumption of no wood degradation. Relaxing this assumption and taking into account a wood degradation rate of 5% leads to a fourfold increase in the overall surplus over the period 2009-2020. Fourth, the effect of the plan on upstream wood prices is limited under the non-degradation assumption. This can be explained by the relatively low values of the price elasticities of the supply functions of windfall, but also by the effect of storage in the scenario with the plan, which buffers the fall in prices but also its rise compared to a scenario without the plan. It should be noted that in an imperfect market situation, it is very likely that prices will react even less because of the effects of the capture of economic rents by one or more groups of agents. It should also be remembered that FFSM is a partial equilibrium model that does not capture the macroeconomic effects of the plan. Similarly, cyclical effects (economic crisis) are not included in the analysis. Nevertheless, FFSM models prices well above 0, whether in the scenario with or without the plan. This is a robust result to sensitivity analyses. This result means that the market does not disappear, even when no plan is implemented. We then simulated alternative scenarios to the windfall plan as it was implemented. It appears that a reallocation of part of the aid initially allocated to transport to storage would (1) limit the decline in market prices in the years following the storm, (2) increase the total surplus gain and (3) decrease the surplus gain associated with the supply of windfall. These conclusions seem relatively insensitive to the values of the elasticities of the supply of windfall with respect to costs calibrated in an ad hoc manner. On the other hand, it appears that aid at the price level, in the form of a price subsidy for upstream mobilization, leads to (1) an increase in storage and a decrease in exports and (2) an increase in the total surplus gain compared to aid at the cost level as implemented in the windfall plan. The second point of this conclusion does not seem to be very sensitive to the values of the elasticities, but the first point seems to be very sensitive to the value of these elasticities and should be considered with caution.

No summary available.

No summary available.

This thesis evaluates the consequences of different climate policies on the French forestry and wood industry. We start from the observation that in France, the policies currently in place are, for the most part, in the form of targeted measures based on energy substitution through an increase in wood-energy consumption. We study the effects of these policies on the economy of the sector and on the evolution of the resource and we analyze the consequences of two alternative fictitious measures: a policy of sequestration in the forest and a cross-sectoral carbon tax. To do so, we develop a bio-economic model of the French forestry sector: French Forest Sector Model (FFSM) is based on a module representing the economy of the wood sector in partial equilibrium and a module representing the evolution of the French forestry resource. FFSM represents the consumption of 6 processed wood products, the production of 3 primary wood products and the exchanges of these products between the 22 French regions and between France and abroad. FFSM makes it possible to evaluate the economic efficiency of policies by estimating their cost and measuring their impact on the economic variables of the sector. The environmental efficiency of the measures studied is analyzed by calculating the emission balances and determining their consequences on the evolution of the forest resource.

This thesis evaluates the consequences of different climate policies on the French forestry and wood industry. We start from the observation that in France, the policies currently in place are, for the most part, in the form of targeted measures based on energy substitution through an increase in wood-energy consumption. We study the effects of these policies on the economy of the sector and on the evolution of the resource and we analyze the consequences of two alternative fictitious measures: a policy of sequestration in the forest and a cross-sectoral carbon tax. To do so, we develop a bio-economic model of the French forestry sector: French Forest Sector Model (FFSM) is based on a module representing the economy of the wood sector in partial equilibrium and a module representing the evolution of the French forestry resource. FFSM represents the consumption of 6 processed wood products, the production of 3 primary wood products and the exchanges of these products between the 22 French regions and between France and abroad. FFSM makes it possible to evaluate the economic efficiency of policies by estimating their cost and measuring their impact on the economic variables of the sector. The environmental efficiency of the measures studied is analyzed by calculating the emission balances and determining their consequences on the evolution of the forest resource.