How to evaluate a collection of plant genetic resources ?

Summary The erosion of biodiversity and local cultivars promotes the ex situ conservation of plant genetic resources. This conservation is considered mainly for potential use in the face of an uncertain future. Thus, on the basis of sequential modelling in an uncertain future, the author shows, on the one hand, that the value of a collection is not so much linked to the value of the genes it contains (the marginal value of a gene being zero) as to the probability of finding an interesting gene in it (absence of substitutability, etc.) and, on the other hand, that the value of a collection is not so much linked to the value of the genes it contains as to the probability of finding an interesting gene in it (absence of substitution, etc.).On the other hand, on the basis of simulations, it defines the best decision-making criterion for the conservation of genetic resources: maximization of the expected utility (cost/benefit analysis) or minimization of the risks in the face of an uncertain future (precautionary principle).