Vocational training for the unemployed in France: theoretical analysis and empirical evaluation.

Summary This thesis proposes both a micro and macroeconomic evaluation of training programs for the unemployed in France. It begins with a review of the literature that highlights the heterogeneity of the effects of training according to the audience, the content of the training courses, and the outcome variables considered. Chapter 3 then describes the French institutional system, whose complexity is a factor of selectivity in the process that leads job seekers to training. Chapter 4 then evaluates the impact of training on individual data by applying the propensity score matching method to data from the Fichier National des Assedic (FNA). The results indicate that the effect of training on the unemployment rate of trained individuals is strongly negative in the months following the start of the program, but then becomes slightly positive. Chapter 5 extends the analysis by estimating, using a duration model, the effect of training on the transition rates from unemployment to employment and from employment to unemployment. This approach controls for selectivity due to unobservable factors. It appears that training tends on average to increase the duration of the unemployment episode, but that it also tends to increase the duration of the job recovered. These effects are also sensitive to the duration of the training courses: longer training courses lead to longer unemployment durations, but also to longer employment durations. Finally, chapter 6 attempts to measure the equilibrium effects of an extension of training programs, using a model calibrated à la Mortensen and Pissarides [1994]. The calibration of the model exploits the results of the evaluation conducted in chapter 5, and in particular the fact that training reduces the probability of destruction of jobs occupied by previously trained individuals. In this framework, the simulations show that training, by improving the profit prospects of firms, can encourage them to open more jobs, which benefits all the unemployed, trained or not.