DELACOTE Philippe

Forest policy is increasingly mobilizing the forestry sector to contribute to environmental objectives, and modeling is often used as a means to interrogate the future. This thesis explores the ability of forest sector models (FSMs), bio-economic simulation models, to support this transition.Conceptually, we explore the literature behind FSMs as well as the literature on the epistemology of economic models. We show that forestry policy has been a strong determinant of research practices, influencing the representations of the sector in the models and the discourses mobilized to conduct the simulations. We also illustrate the influence of other factors: the nature of the forest facts, the local context, the availability of data and past practices. We then look at recent developments and show that while wood production and trade were the original research themes, environmental issues such as renewable energy production or habitat protection are now central. However, their integration remains uneven, and they are treated all the more closely as they come closer to the original subjects. Conversely, due to the difficulty of estimating an economic value or the formulation of tools at an inappropriate scale, the modeling of certain cultural and regulatory services is more difficult and superficial.We then conduct two case studies on climate change mitigation and adaptation and on the French forestry sector, where the diversity of local contexts justifies taking a detailed look at the upstream of the sector. We use the French Forest Sector Model (FFSM) and seek to implement two methodological levers likely to improve the consideration of environmental issues: the coupling of models and the consideration of the heterogeneity of environmental conditions.The FFSM is first used with a model of optimal rotations including amenities other than wood in order to study the implications of a management seeking to sequester carbon. We show that, in the short term, sequestration is mainly enhanced by postponing harvesting. In the long term, additional benefits are expected by changing forest composition and structure, leading to more diverse forest landscapes. These trends, however, show strong spatial heterogeneity between and within regions, highlighting the importance of considering the local context.In situ carbon, however, is exposed to risks of non-permanence. We assess the consequences for the forestry and wood industry of the evolution of fire regimes in the context of climate change and the implications for projections of the uncertainties related to this evolution. We use a probabilistic fire activity model that we couple to the FFSM, and perform multiple simulations for several levels of radiative forcing and climate models. Although locally important, the impact of fires remains limited at the scale of the sector. They affect a small proportion of the resource each year but in a cumulative manner, and their projected consequences are particularly visible in the second half of the 21st century. Interannual variations in fire activity have little propagation to the dynamics of the sector, and the uncertainty in the projections comes mainly from the choice of model and climate scenarios. Uncertainty due to the stochasticity of the fire phenomenon never predominates but accounts for a significant portion of the total uncertainty. These results highlight the importance of considering multiple scenarios and the inherent variability of ecological processes in foresight using large-scale bio-economic models.

Protected areas (PAs) are an essential conservation tool in the Brazilian Amazon, which is a key region for combating climate change and faces many economic development challenges. Conflicts between conservation and development objectives for land use, however, have diminished the effectiveness of PAs, either because of their isolation (location bias) or because their boundaries were not sufficiently defended. In addition, the fact that PAs may discourage economic development has led to an acceleration of PA declassifications, reductions, and deletions (PADD) in recent decades. The objective of this thesis is to examine the relationship between PADDD events and trade-offs between environmental conservation and economic development objectives in the Brazilian Amazon, depending on PA characteristics and land heterogeneity. I evaluate this relationship, first in terms of decisions and second, in terms of impacts on deforestation and economic development. In the first chapter, we assess the drivers of PADDD events by examining how conservation-development interactions induce reductions in PA size. From 2006 to 2015, PA size reductions were more common near cities, reflecting the influence of development agencies. As PAs were deforested less, reducing their size could generate high environmental costs. Reductions in PA size were also more common where PAs were already deforested and expensive to manage, reflecting the influence of environmental agencies. In the second chapter, we assess the impact of 2009-2012 PA size reductions on 2010-2015 deforestation, using matching strategies based on economic pressure on land and previous PA efficiency. Our results are consistent with our conceptual framework: reductions in PA size had no impact when they did not face or constrain economic pressures, and increased deforestation when they limited economic pressures to some extent. In the third chapter, we assess the effect of PADDD events from 2001 to 2010 on income distribution and inequality. We use matching strategies and double-difference estimation based on economic pressure on land and the effect of PADDD events on final protection size. Where economic pressures were strong, the new economic opportunities that followed PA size reductions contributed to the growth of the upper-middle income class. Away from economic pressures, inequality decreased when PADD events increased the size of protection, likely due to better PA management or the development of tourism activities. This thesis calls for a more robust analysis of PAs, taking into account their instability and landscape heterogeneity. These results could help allocate scarce resources to consolidate the PA network where it would be most effective, and to select better sites and management types when establishing PAs.

We develop a model of optimal land allocation in a developing economy that features three possible land uses: agriculture, primary and secondary forests. The distinction between those forest types reflects their different contributions in terms of public goods. In our model, reforestation is costly because it undermines land title security. Using the forest transition concept, we study long-term land-use change and explain important features of cumulative deforestation across countries. Our results shed light on the speed at which net deforestation ends, on the effect of tenure costs in this process, and on composition in steady state. We also present a policy analysis that emphasizes the critical role of institutional reforms addressing the costs of both deforestation and tenure in order to promote a transition. We find that focusing only on net forest losses can be misleading since late transitions may yield, upon given conditions, a higher level of environmental benefits.

No summary available.

The validation of integrated assessment models is an important challenge in multi- and interdisciplinary research. We show here that validation methods, often summarized as a comparison between model results and real past data, are complex and varied and that, in the case of models whose objective is to shed prospective light on the long term, validation cannot be reduced to comparison methods. To illustrate our remarks, we apply our reflection to bioeconomic simulation models of the forestry and wood industry.

Deforestation in Brazil has been a significant phenomenon since the 1970s, accelerating mainly due to agricultural expansion and infrastructure development such as roads. In order to reduce the incentive for deforestation, the authorities have implemented several sets of environmental conservation programs. Understanding the impacts of these policy interventions on both environmental (deforestation intensity) and socio-economic (effect on poverty, effect on local population development) issues is essential for these public policies to be implemented effectively.Nevertheless, access to spatial, economic, and social data due to the size of the country makes impact assessment difficult. This thesis is organized around two themes: spatial analysis and impact assessment. The creation of an original database at a level of aggregation that is, to our knowledge, very little studied allows us to extend the research on the socio-economic impact of environmental public policies.

No summary available.

This thesis aims to highlight the potential of information and communication technologies (ICTs), and specifically cell phones, in sub-Saharan Africa to improve household livelihoods through information dissemination, rent redistribution and financial inclusion. Africa is the least developed continent, which suffers from poverty, lack of essential infrastructure, famine problems, the highest rates of illiteracy and limited access to financial services. Furthermore, international organizations such as the World Bank believe that the expansion of cell phone adoption represents an opportunity to overcome some of these barriers through innovative uses in the rural world which suffers more from these physical barriers. Through this thesis we evaluate the impact of the use of its services via cell phone in the agricultural sector, in order to draw conclusions on their benefits and quantify them, to enlighten the public authorities, private and non-governmental organizations on their real contributions and direct them towards services adapted to the needs of the population.

The objective of this thesis is to develop a method for quantitative evaluation of the economic and environmental performance of regional development strategies, applied to the forestry sector in the Grand Est region. The approach is based on the coupling of modeling tools from economics and environmental sciences. In chapter 1, we analyze the existing couplings between 5 economic models and 3 environmental assessment tools. A dedicated criterion grid allows us to compare their relevance to provide integrative assessments at the meso scale. The couplings between equilibrium models and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) best meet the defined objectives. Chapter 2 details the methodological framework of the coupling between a partial equilibrium model of the French forestry sector and LCA. The homogenization of material flows between the two models allows the production of economic and environmental indicators with a coherent scope, the ratio of which provides two eco-efficiency indicators. The first one combines the economic surplus of the forestry sector with its potential environmental impacts (Partial Eco-Efficiency, PEE), the second one adds the environmental impacts avoided by the substitution between wood-energy and fossil fuels, compared to a reference scenario (Full Eco-Efficiency, FEE). In Chapter 3, we use this framework to analyze different development strategies of the bioeconomy oriented towards wood-energy, at the national scale and at the regional level in the Grand Est. We compare the EEF of scenarios built by combinations of different policies: wood energy demand subsidy, local supply, forest protection, energy crisis. The strategies integrating a stimulation of wood-energy demand are the most eco-efficient, at the regional and national level. This is based on the avoided impacts of substituting wood energy for fossil fuels. The combination of the subsidy with protection and/or local procurement measures slightly increases or decreases its eco-efficiency depending on the scale of implementation. Other factors determining the eco-efficiency of a policy are identified, such as the characteristics of the forest resource, the importance of the local wood industry, and the characteristics of neighboring regions.

Protected areas (PAs) are a widely used strategy for conserving forests and ecosystem services. When PAs succeed in deterring economic activities that degrade forests, the impacts include more forest yet less economic gain. These economic opportunity costs of conservation lead actors with economic interests to resist new PAs, driving their sites away from profitable market centers and towards areas featuring lower opportunity costs. Further, after PAs are created, economic actors may want PA downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement (collectively PADDD). We examine reductions in PAs' spatial extent – downsizings (partial erasures) and degazettements (complete erasures) − that presumably reduce protection. Using data for the entire Brazilian Amazon from PADDDtracker.org, our empirical analyses explore whether size reductions from 2006 to 2015 resulted from bargaining between development and conservation. We find that the risks of PA size reductions are raised by: lower travel costs (as implied by distances to roads and cities), which affect economic gains and enforcement. greater PA size, which affects enforcement. and more prior internal deforestation, which lowers the impacts of size reductions. These dynamics of protection offer insights on the potentially conflicting factors that lead to PA size reductions, with implications for policymaking to enhance PA effectiveness and permanence.

Integrated simulation models are commonly used to provide insight on the complex functioning of social-ecological systems, often drawing on earlier tools with a narrower focus. Forest sector models (FSM) encompass a set of simulation models originally developed to forecast economic developments in timber markets but now commonly used to analyse climate and environmental policy. In this paper, we document and investigate this evolution through the prism of the inclusion of several non-timber objectives into FSM. We perform a systematic, quantitative survey of the literature followed by a more in-depth narrative review. Results show that a majority of papers in FSM research today focuses on non-timber objectives related to climate change mitigation, namely carbon sequestration and bioenergy production. Habitat conservation, deforestation and the mitigation of disturbances are secondary foci, while aspects such as forest recreation and many regulation services are absent. Non-timber objectives closest to the original targets of FSM, as well as those for which economic values are easier to estimate, have been more deeply integrated to the models, entering the objective function as decision variables. Others objectives are usually modelled as constraints and only considered through their negative economic impacts on the forest sector. Current limits to a deeper inclusion of non-timber objectives include the models’ ability to represent local environmental conditions as well as the formulation of the optimisation problem as a maximisation of economic welfare. Recent research has turned towards the use of model couplings and the development of models at the local scale to overcome these limitations. Challenges for future research comprise extensions to other non-timber objectives, especially cultural services, as well as model calibration at lower spatial scales.

Common-pool resources (CPR) are frequently used as risk-management tools against risk on private activities. The impact of this safety-net use of CPR on the individual investment into and extraction from the commons is analyzed in this paper. Agents of the community first choose to invest in their private project and in the CPR. second, they choose how much to extract from their private project and the commons. The model compares two types of risk-management tool: CPR as (ex post) risk-coping and (ex ante) risk-diversification mechanisms. It also compares two situations regarding risk: risk on a private project and uncertainty on CPR investment by other community members. The theoretical predictions are empirically tested with experimental economics. To this end, we propose an original CPR game composed of an investment period and an extraction period. Our result clearly shows that risk reduction in the private project unambiguously decreases investment in the CPR, while it does not impact CPR extraction. We also show that a risk-coping strategy is well understood as more flexible and influenced by the outcome in terms of private project yield.

Since the emergence of the REDD+ mechanism, hundreds of projects have emerged around the globe. Much attention has been given to REDD+ projects in the literature, but the conditions under which they are likely to be efficient ares till not well known. In this article, we study how the location of REDD+ projects is chosen and how those location choices influence project additionality. Based on a sample of six REDD+ projects in Brazil, we propose an empirical analysis of the location choices and estimate additionality in the first years of implementation using impact evaluation techniques. In order to explain the heterogeneity of the empirical results, we present a simple theoretical model and show that project location is strongly influenced by the type of project proponent, which appears to be a good proxy for its objectives, whether oriented toward environmental impacts, development impacts, or external funding. Our results suggest that (1) the incentives behind REDD+ certification mechanisms can lead to low environmental efforts or an investment in areas that are not additional, (2) location biases are dependent on the REDD+ project manager’s type, and (3) the existence of a location bias does not necessarily preclude additionality.

No summary available.

The ambition of the INRA "EFESE-EA" study is to describe the mechanisms and determinants of the provision of ecosystem services by agricultural ecosystems on the basis of a review of existing knowledge, and to assess them on a national scale on the basis of indicators defined in the framework of the study. The organization of the work, as planned at the beginning of the study, was sequential: (1) biophysical identification and specification of a list of agricultural goods and ecosystem services. (2) biophysical valuation: quantification of the level of provision of the goods and services identified in step (1) (3) economic valuation: quantification of the economic value of the services (most often in a monetary unit) In the time available for the study, the group of experts gave priority to the biophysical components (1) and (2) in order to : - to investigate the conceptualization of goods and services (part 1) in a robust manner: this work constitutes a current research front, associated with an abundant but sometimes unstabilized academic literature, which the group of experts has endeavored to analyze in order to propose argued conceptualization choices. - to push the biophysical assessment exercise (part 2) as far as possible within the framework of the initial request made by the MEEM: to map the production of a wide range of agricultural goods and the SE rendered by agricultural ecosystems at the finest possible spatial resolution, and on the scale of France as a whole. It should be noted that since this exercise does not constitute a research project but rather an INRA institutional study (in the sense of DEPE procedures), all of the assessments developed in this report are based on existing data, and no experimental work aimed at acquiring new field data has been conducted. The result of this choice of prioritization is that: - the economic evaluation component (3) has been initiated for some SEs but is not very well developed compared to components (1) and (2). - while taking care to develop traceable and robust biophysical assessment methodologies, the experts decided to propose more exploratory methodologies for a few ES for which current data do not allow for a direct assessment of the level of provision on the scale of the whole of France: In these particular cases (explicitly indicated in the sections of the report that deal with them), the methodologies were implemented until the mapping was completed, with the aim of showing the potential that these methodologies offer and the nature of the results that they can produce, provided that they are validated for the whole of France, rather than with the aim of interpreting the results obtained for themselves The experts were therefore particularly concerned to put the quantitative results thus produced into perspective, and to accompany the maps with a detailed description of the validation protocols that would have to be implemented in the follow-up to the study to stabilize and validate these exploratory methodologies. This bias on the part of the EFESE-agricultural ecosystems working group is compatible with the objective of the EFESE program, which is to produce a methodological guide for the evaluation of goods and services by pointing out the limits, difficulties, precautions and possible improvements associated with each of the avenues put forward.

The following three essays focus on forest management in Gabon. The heterogeneity of countries and contexts does not allow for a single model of forest land allocation or management. Consequently, the external validity of country-specific research results is fragile. However, the difficulty of obtaining general results should not hinder monographic research, as forest policies need to be assessed in their national context. For this reason, this research focuses on one country in particular: Gabon. Through three essays, it proposes a reflection on the difficult reconciliation of economic development issues and the allocation of forest resources. The thesis is structured as follows: the first chapter analyzes the policy of banning log exports and its results, the second chapter studies the link between the practices of logging companies and their impacts on the local population, and the last chapter examines the situation of workers in the natural rubber sector and that of independent producers.

Agricultural ecosystems are one of the six components of the French Assessment of Ecosystems and Ecosystem Services (EFESE), a program launched in 2012 by the Ministry in charge of the Environment to provide knowledge on the current state and sustainable use of ecosystems (see Box 2). In 2014, the Ministry of the Environment asked INRA to take charge of the agricultural ecosystems component. The federating research program EcoSerV (Ecosystem Services), launched by INRA in 2013, also supported this study, which it will subsequently complete and extend. The agricultural ecosystem, seen as the set of plots dedicated to the production of agricultural biomass, is configured and managed by the farmer, who combines ecological processes and exogenous inputs in his production practices. One of the major challenges associated with the analysis of ecosystem services is the design of production systems based on the valorization of these services, thus consuming little in the way of exogenous inputs and responding to societal issues such as the conservation of biodiversity or the limitation of environmental impacts.

The forests of the European Union grow by 1.2 billion m³ per year. Half of this volume remains in the forest. The other half feeds three industrial sectors: the materials sector, the paper sector and the energy sector. These industrial product flows are set in motion and financed by various consumers. However, since 2000, consumption has been changing, to the point of strongly disrupting certain wood flows and impacting employment and the sector's trade balance. To predict the impact of these changes, economists model the relationships between raw material supply, finished product demand, prices, production and international trade. This thesis constructs an empirical model to assess the impact of these changes for the European forestry sector.An introductory chapter defines the context of the forest resources and products analyzed at the macroeconomic level. Then I present the main partial equilibrium models used for prospective studies of the forestry and wood sector. From a general framework including production and international trade, I detail the specific problems encountered when estimating demand functions. A second chapter studies the potential impact of a trade agreement between the European Union and the United States on the forestry sector. We find that total welfare would increase in the region of the agreement and decrease slightly elsewhere. Moreover, the agreement is more beneficial to consumers than to producers. The results also show that third countries are impacted by the agreement, which highlights the importance of using a global model. In a third chapter, I estimate the price and income elasticities of demand for forest products on a panel of European countries. I deal with panel non-stationarity problems and estimate elasticities within cointegrated panels. The demand elasticities are lower than previous estimates in the literature. These robust elasticities inserted in a forestry-wood sector model project a lower demand over a 20-year period. In a fourth chapter, I analyze structural changes in paper consumption. I use an econometric panel data model to estimate threshold effects in the relationship between the use of information technology and paper consumption: newsprint, printing paper and writing paper. I show how the elasticity of demand for paper depends on the penetration of the Internet in the population. A threshold effect occurs when the majority of a population has access to the internet. After the threshold, the coefficients linking consumption and its explanatory variables (price and income) decrease in absolute value or change sign. From a projection of the number of internet users per country, projections of paper consumption could be updated with this type of transition model. Lower paper demand frees up resources for the development of other innovative forest products and services.

In July 2016, the European Commission (EC) published a legislative proposal for incorporating greenhouse gas emissions and removals due to Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) into its 2030 Climate and Energy Framework. The Climate and Energy Framework aims at a total emission reduction of 40% by 2030 for all sectors together as part of the Paris Agreement. The LULUCF proposal regulates a “no debit” target for LULUCF (Forests and Agricultural soils), and regulates the accounting of any additional mitigation potential that might be expected of it. We find that the forest share of the LULUCF sector can achieve much more than what is in the regulation now. We elaborate a strategy for unlocking European Union (EU) forests and forest sector potential based on the concept of “climate smart forestry” (CSF). We find that to-date, European policy has not firmly integrated forest potential into the EU climate policy framework. Nor have climate objectives been firmly integrated into those of the forest and forest sector at either the EU or national level. Yet a wide range of measures can be applied to provide positive incentives for more firmly integrating these climate objectives into the forest and forest sector framework. With the right set of incentives in place at EU and Member States levels, we find the current literature supports the view that the EU has the potential to achieve an additional combined mitigation impact through CSF of 441 Mt CO2/year by 2050. In addition, CSF, through reducing and/or removing greenhouse gas emissions, adapting and building forest resilience, and sustainably increasing forest productivity and incomes, tackles multiple policy goals.

The objective of this thesis is to estimate the cost of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation measures related to crop fertilization, which represents 38% and 44% of agricultural GHG emissions in Europe and France, respectively. The study of the cost and mitigation potential is carried out on two key measures in the mitigation of emissions, namely the establishment of nitrogen fixing plants (i.e. legumes) and the reduction of fertilization per hectare. The mitigation potential of legumes is studied by simulating their increase in French crop rotations and then on the scale of crop rotations lasting up to six years in five European regions. The results show that significant emission reductions are possible, while increasing farmers' profits. The role of risk aversion is also investigated regarding the reduction of crop fertilization per hectare. We analytically show the conditions leading to an over-application of fertilizer per hectare allowing risk averse farmers to minimize the risk of yield loss. Numerical simulations performed specifically on risk averse farmers demonstrate that emission mitigation insurance can potentially trigger significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

This thesis examines the main determinants of rural households' livelihood strategies. It seeks to understand how these strategies impact small-scale deforestation and biodiversity conservation using a landscape approach. Using a unique database obtained through a face-to-face survey of a representative sample of 1035 households in the transboundary conservation landscape of the Dja-Odzala-Minkébé Tri-National (Tridom-TCL)-Congo Basin, this thesis aims to answer three questions and is organized into three chapters. The first chapter analyzes "how indigenous and local households formulate their preferences among livelihood strategies and means" using a spatial autoregressive Probit model. The second chapter examines "how and to what extent these strategies impact small-scale deforestation" using a spatial lag model. Given the nature of household-wildlife interactions, their main activities, the third chapter examines "household preferences for forest elephant conservation" using limited qualitative variable models.Financial assets (remittances and loans), distance to market, damage from human-elephant conflict, and ethnicity, specifically, autochthony are among the determinants of rural households' livelihood strategy choices in Tridom-TCL. We further show that household deforestation intensity varies significantly as a function of these livelihood strategies. Therefore, commitments to reduce deforestation can be promoted by taking into account the factors that govern households' livelihood choices. They can also be promoted by taking into account the interactions between households and their location in the landscape. Indeed, we find that there are imitation effects in the deforestation decision between households in the same neighborhood, with indirect spatial effects that may amplify small-scale deforestation.Cross-cutting solutions, to all three questions addressed in this thesis, for a sustainable landscape should aim to optimize the trade-offs between household livelihood strategies, forests and/or natural wildlife habitats. Policy makers should, for example, integrate large mammal mobility corridors, including forest elephants, in areas of high wildlife concentration and away from community spaces to reduce the risk of human-wildlife conflict.

Objectives: To quantify the contribution of the French forest-wood product chain in terms of carbon sequestration and substitution when accounting for both the physical impacts (shifts in tree growth and mortality rates) and the market impacts (increased demand of harvested wood products (HWP)) of climate change (cc) and the subsequent forest managers adaptations. (2) To assess the uncertainty of the impacts on the above carbon balance and on forest allocation. and (3) To assess the role of managers’ expectations toward these future, uncertain but highly anticipated, impacts. Methodology: We used a bio-economic model of the French Forest Sector (FFSM++) that is able to consider and integrate: (a) the effects of climate change over forest dynamics. (b) forest investment decisions (among groups of species) according to expected profitability. and (c) market effects in terms of regionalised supply, consumption and trade of HWP, depending on the forest resource stocks and international prices. By including both forest dynamics and forest products, we can evaluate the carbon balance taking the following elements into consideration: (a) carbon sequestered in live and dead biomass in the forest. (b) carbon sequestered in HWP. (c) carbon substituted when wood is used in place of fossil fuels or more energy-intensive materials. and (d) carbon released by forest operations. Results : When the model is run at constant conditions for the next century, the average carbon potential of French forests is 66.2–125.3 Mt CO2 y−1, depending on whether we consider only inventoried wood resources, HWP pools and direct energy substitution, or if we also account for the carbon stored in tree branches and roots and if we consider the more indirect, but also largely more subjective, material substitution. These values correspond to 18.3% and 34.7%, respectively, of the French 2010 emissions (361 Mt CO2). However, when we consider both the probable increment of coniferous mortality and changes in forest growth, plus the rise in HWP demand worldwide, the average sequestration rate of the French forest decreases by 6.6–5.8% to 61.8–118.0 Mt CO2 y−1. Running partial scenarios, we can assess the relative interplay of these two factors, where the price factor increases the HWP stock while decreasing the forest stocks (where the latter effect prevails), while the physical impact of climate change reduces both, but to a lesser extent. Considering short-sighted forest managers, whose behaviour is based uniquely on the observed conditions at the time decisions are made, we obtain a limited effect of the overall carbon balance but a relatively large impact on the area allocation of broadleaved vs. coniferous species.

This paper analyses the impact of several avoided deforestation policies within a patchy forested landscape. Central is the idea that one neighbour's deforestation actions may impact the returns to deforestation in nearby patches. We determine the impact of each policy in terms of avoided deforestation and leakage levels at the landscape scale through modelling and simulations. Avoided deforestation policies at a landscape level are respectively: two Payment for Environmental Services (PES) policies, one focused on deforestation hotspots, the second being equally available to all agents. a conservation area. and, an agglomeration bonus. Because our model accommodates spatial interactions in the absence of a deforestation policy, it is possible that a spatial policy can affect both within-intervention areas and outside-intervention spatial spillovers in terms of leakage across different landowners’ forest patches. These two different elements of the total extent of displacement across the full landscape have not been considered before. Our contribution is twofold. In terms of methodology, we expand the concept of leakage in accounting for direct impacts to adjacent patches and spatial spillovers over the landscape, and we provide a measure of leakage in a dynamic manner for policy assessment. From our analytical model and simulations, we show that leakage is sensitive to the spatial distribution of forest patch types. The two PES policies are the most cost-effective policies regarding avoided deforestation. The agglomeration bonus policy is efficient at the expense of a higher cost, whilst the conservation area policy is efficient when patches with similar characteristics are gathered.

Given the importance of anthropogenic determinants in forest ecosystems within Europe, the objective of the FFSM++ model is to link the evidence arising from biological models to socio-economic determinants, where the expected returns of forest investments represent the main drivers. Consequently, an inventory-based discrete-time Markov chain model of the forest resources is coupled with a partial equilibrium model of the market of forest products and with a microeconomic model of allocation of the harvested area to form a national-level forest sector model for France (FFSM++). In this paper, we present the model with emphasis on its spatial aspects, and we show that by only considering environmental heterogeneity and, therefore, the local characteristics of the forest under management, it is possible to realistically model management decisions such as forest investments. In particular, we propose an application that spatialises the forest growth rate, normally reported by inventory sources at the regional level, and we run long-term scenarios (until 2100) in order to simulate the effects on the forest dynamics of a potential increase in coniferous mortality in certain areas due to climate change when interactions between forest management strategies are explicitly considered.

Given the importance of anthropogenic determinants in forest ecosystems within Europe, the objective of this paper is to link the evidence arising from biological models to socio-economic determinants, where the expected returns of forest investments represent the main driver. A micro-economic area allocation module is therefore coupled with an inventory-based forest dynamics module and a partial-equilibrium market module in a national-level forest sector model for France (FFSM++). Running long-term scenarios (until 2100), we show the implication of an active management policy on forest composition: when the most profitable option drives forest investments, coniferous forests are generally preferred over broadleaved ones. This result is, however, reappraised when the risk aversion of forest owners is explicitly considered in the model, given the higher risk associated with the former. We further show the strong stability of forest ecosystems that, due to the very long cycles, undergoes very small variations in volume stocks, even in scenarios where the initial forest regeneration is strongly influenced.

This thesis is an assessment of the overall technical and economic mitigation potential in Chinese agriculture and the conditions necessary for the formation of a carbon price in this sector. The scope of the research includes emissions from croplands and in particular those related to the use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. It is based on the construction of a marginal abatement cost curve (MACC), which provides a rational framework for combining biophysical and economic data to reflect mitigation costs. This tool aggregates the mitigation potential from applying a subset of cost-effective measures above a designated baseline. An analysis of China's climate policies reveals that agriculture is almost absent from the national mitigation strategy. We therefore intend to examine the feasibility, from a technical, economic and political perspective, of integrating agriculture into domestic mitigation policies. First, the trend and methods of calculating emissions are assessed to determine a rigorous approach to constructing baseline scenarios from business-as-usual projections for 2020. Second, we identify nine mitigation measures for cultivated soils, assess their abatement rates and future applicability beyond the baseline scenario to obtain a total technically feasible mitigation potential. Their translation into economic potential is then made by comparing the implementation costs of different mitigation options relative to conventional agricultural practices. The MACC results show that agriculture offers a significant mitigation potential, which could offset about one third of the baseline emissions and of which one third could be achieved at negative cost to farmers. Finally, we examine the use of economic instruments to reduce emissions at least cost in the agricultural sector. Given the institutional, behavioral, and social barriers, we strongly suggest reforming the fertilizer subsidy system to send a clear policy signal to farmers. The use of carbon intensity as a standardized benchmark is recommended to improve and broaden access to offset projects, and may also set the stage for a possible experimental emissions trading program in agriculture. Consistent with the priority of protecting food security in China, case studies of regional grain production are introduced in all these steps, including analysis of the greenhouse gas intensity of production in each province, the regional potential for reducing emissions from nitrogen fertilizer use, as well as the disparity in implementation costs in some regions.

Deforestation is a major environmental issue in developing countries, and agricultural land expansion is its main cause. The objective of this paper is twofold:(1) to identify the macroeconomic determinants of ending deforestation. and (2) to explain cumulative deforestation and other land uses. To do this, we first study the probability of a turning point for deforestation (i.e., the switch from decreasing to expanding forest areas), based on the Forest Transition hypothesis. Second, we adapt a land-use model to explain the trade-off between forest and agriculture during development. To take the link between both phenomena into account, we estimate a dynamic panel seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model along with a switching regression model, applied to a dataset of 57 developing countries observed over four time periods. The estimation results reveal that economic development and institutions play a significant role in long-term deforestation. Our results also suggest that after the first development stage, agriculture and forest are not always competing land uses. These results provide new insights into public policies such as REDD +.

Improving information about individual opportunity costs of deforestation agents has the potential to increase the efficiency of REDD when it takes the form of a payment for environmental services scheme. However, objectives pursued in REDD projects may vary across policy makers. Within a theoretical framework, this paper explores the impacts of different policy objectives under two opportunity cost settings: asymmetric and full information. For a policy maker aiming to maximize net income from REDD, having full information may not increase the amount of forest conserved but could lead to a redistribution of rents away from agents. By contrast, for an environmental policy maker focused on maximizing the amount of forest conserved under REDD having full information increases the amount of forest conserved while reducing the rents received by agents. For a policy maker pursuing poverty alleviation objectives in REDD-affected communities, having full information makes no difference to overall welfare as rents remain with agents. The amount of deforestation avoided will at least be as high as under asymmetric information. These results are illustrated with data collected on opportunity costs in Amazonas State, Brazil.

In this paper, we deal with the impact of the safety-net use of Common Pool Resource (CPR) on the individual investment into and extraction from the commons. We propose a theoretical model with two steps: agents of the community choose to invest in their private project and in the commons. second, they choose how much to extract from their private project and the commons. The model compares two types of risk-management tool: CPR as risk coping and risk diversification mechanisms. It also compares two types of risk: risk on a private project and risk on CPR investment by other community members. In a second part of the paper, we test empirically the theoretical results through experimental economics. Such a test needs to propose a new CPR game composed of two periods, an investment one and an extraction one. We propose such an original game inspired from the two existing CPR games, Investment game (Olstrom et al.

Overall, this special issue aims to show how forest sector models may help decision making and provide useful insights, when it comes to climate change mitigation policies and their impact on forest sector.

Within the framework of policies aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, France now relies heavily on energy substitution. This is reflected in the implementation of aid plans for the mobilization of wood energy or the production of heat from biomass. On the other hand, the action of the State is not based, to date, on measures favoring carbon sequestration in forests because of the very partial consideration of in situ sequestration in international climate policies resulting from the Kyoto Protocol. Researchers at the Nancy Forest Economics Laboratory have developed the French Forest Sector Model (FFSM), a bioeconomic model of the French forestry sector, used for climate policy simulations and impact analysis. The first results of the FFSM model show that: (i) an ambitious substitution policy can cause tensions on the resource and on the industrial wood markets. (ii) a sequestration policy has a better carbon balance by 2020 than a substitution policy. (iii) the implementation of a generalized carbon tax would have a positive overall effect on the French forestry and wood industry.

Stimulating renewable energy is a crucial objective in view of tackling climate change and coping with future fossil fuel scarcity. In France, fuelwood appears to be an important source for the renewable energy mix. Using the French Forest Sector Model, our paper aims to assess the impacts of three policy options to stimulate fuelwood consumption: a consumer subsidy, a producer subsidy and a fixed-demand contract policy. We explored their impacts in terms of five groups of criteria: (1) forest resource dynamics. (2) variations in wood products prices and quantities consumed and produced. (3) trade balance. (4) budgetary costs. and (5) variations in agent surpluses. We show that no policy option is more desirable than another on the basis of all of these criteria and that trade-offs will determine which is the best policy option to be implemented. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.